What exchange rate will be in the year. Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate. What to do now with currency

In the winter of 2016-2017, the dollar will continue to decline, according to the optimistic forecast of experts. The dynamics of currency quotes will depend on the trend of the oil market and the actual budget deficit.

If events develop according to a negative scenario, the ruble will resume its fall.

Oil to the rescue

The likely strengthening of the ruble is associated with the expected growth of oil prices. Analysts at VTB 24 allow the dollar to depreciate to 60 rubles per dollar by the end of this year if "black gold" rises in price to 55-60 dollars per barrel. With a more significant increase in oil prices, the Russian currency will strengthen to 55 rubles / dollar. Olga Lapshina, a representative of Nordea Bank, allows the exchange rate to fall to 60-61 rubles per dollar if the price of oil reaches 55 dollars per barrel.

The dynamics of oil quotations depends on the readiness of key exporters for a real reduction in oil production. The position of the OPEC countries allows us to count on reaching a compromise as early as November this year. However, not all cartel members are ready to limit the extraction of raw materials, much will depend on the position of Iran and Iraq, as well as Russia's willingness to join the general restrictions.

A positive decision will ensure the growth of oil prices to $60 per barrel, experts predict. As a result, oil companies will receive additional financial resources, which will be directed to investments in oil production. If exporters fail to agree on a final decision to stabilize oil production, then oil prices will drop to $40 per barrel, which will lead to a weakening of the ruble.

Another factor that will have an impact on currency quotes in the winter of 2016-2017 is a possible increase in the Fed's rate. Lapshina believes that the regulator will raise the rate in December of this year, which will support the position of the dollar. Zenit Bank experts disagree with this forecast. The dynamics of the American economy will allow the Fed to raise the rate no earlier than 2017, bank representatives believe.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a new weakening of the Russian currency. Experts note that several factors will threaten the positions of the ruble in winter.

Winter risks

Vladimir Evstifeev, a representative of Zenit Bank, admits the weakening of the ruble to 67-69 rubles / dollar, which will be associated with peak payments on external debt in December this year. In addition, the financing of the budget deficit remains a serious problem.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the current year's budget deficit will reach 3.9%. However, the actual level of excess of expenditures over receipts depends on the timing of privatization. If the government postpones the sale of shares in Rosneft and Bashneft to next year, then the budget deficit will reach an alarming level of 4.5-4.7%, Moody's experts predict.

Under such conditions, the reserves of the Reserve Fund will be exhausted during the winter period, after which the government will be able to use only part of the NWF funds to cover the budget deficit. As a result, officials may agree to a gradual weakening of the ruble, which will increase budget revenues and remove the peak load from reserves.

The scale of the devaluation will depend on the dynamics of oil prices. If the "black gold" remains at the level of $50/bbl, the dollar exchange rate will return to the range of 65-70 rubles/$. An increase in the cost of a barrel to 55-60 dollars will allow the Russian currency to gain a foothold at the level of 62-65 rubles / dollar. If oil quotes fall to $40/barrel, then the value of the dollar will reach 75-80 rubles/$.

Fortification Threats

A strong ruble may slow down the recovery of the Russian economy, experts say. As a result, budget revenues from energy exports will decrease, which will lead to an increase in the deficit. In addition, the positions of domestic exporters will be under attack.

The devaluation of the ruble made it possible to increase the competitiveness of Russian companies in international markets. As a result, representatives of domestic businesses were able to quickly adapt to work in a crisis. The strengthening of the Russian currency will offset the gains achieved and worsen the financial position of export-oriented companies.

The forecast for the dollar at the end of 2017, analysts say, is disappointing: the Russian currency is predicted to fall again. However, according to experts, this forecast should not be surprising: the last months of the year are traditionally weak for the exchange rate. Over the past decades, the ruble has remained on the rise only a few times.

The Russians' suspicions that the Russian currency has recently been somewhat "overvalued" have been confirmed. The traditional movement of the ruble up and down has taken a falling trend. Experts predict that the dollar exchange rate at the end of 2017 will be 60-65 rubles.

The pressure on the ruble is exerted by the need to pay off foreign currency debts to Russian companies by the end of the year. According to macroeconomic statistics, the external debt of non-financial organizations for the last quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018 is $53.6 billion. payments are subject to refinancing in the future, as promised by the Bank of Russia.

The price of the dollar rose to 59.28 rubles. at the rate of the Bank of Russia, the euro costs 68.97 rubles today. Fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate are fueled by oil price fluctuations, caused, according to experts, by scandalous arrests in the royal family in Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, head of the High Anti-Corruption Committee, ordered the arrest of 40 Saudi Arabian influencers, including 11 princes, military officials, officials and businessmen. All of them appear in the “anti-corruption war” case.

Saudi Arabia is one of the top three oil producers in the world, and political instability within the state affects short-term fluctuations in oil prices on the world market. The price of oil has crossed the "psychological mark" of $64 per barrel, exceeding the figures for the last 2 years. Then there was a “rollback” of the price. The opinion of analysts linking the price of oil with the exchange rate of the Russian currency is sometimes diametrically opposed. Some experts talk about the imminent strengthening of the ruble, others say the opposite, believing that there is no clarity on the oil market now.

The opinion of ordinary Russian citizens on this matter is unequivocal: the ruble exchange rate is “overpriced” and will fall. According to public opinion polls, the majority believes that the price will jump up to 64 rubles by the end of the year. per dollar. Interviewed experts advise Russians to take advantage of short-term falls in the price of the US currency and stock up on it for the upcoming New Year holidays.

The price of the ruble will also be "knocked down" by the policy of the Ministry of Finance. The purchase of foreign currency has not had such a massive character since the beginning of 2017 and could not significantly affect the foreign exchange market. Daily purchases of the ruble in the domestic market increased from November 8 to 5.8 billion rubles. It is assumed that the mass purchase of currency will last until the beginning of December 2017. Such actions of the Ministry of Finance, according to experts, distort the real picture of the demand for the Russian currency and its real price on the market. To date, the Ministry of Finance has already bought up $2 billion worth of Russian currency. And this is only for the 3rd quarter of this year. It is expected that in a year the volume will cross the threshold of $12 billion.

At current oil prices, according to experts, the ruble could have a more stable position. However, another factor affects its price: the increase in the world price of the dollar. The dollar's end-2017 outlook and strength is linked to the perceived success of the President's proposed US tax reform, as well as policy reforms by the United States Federal Reserve.

The depreciation of the Russian currency is also indirectly related to the proposed introduction of new economic sanctions against Russia by the end of this year. Fears about the introduction of new restrictions slow down new investment processes in Russia. During the November placement of federal loan bonds, it was possible to sell only 12.5 billion rubles against 15 billion rubles on less favorable terms.

However, according to most experts, ruble fluctuations will stabilize in mid-January 2018. At the end of the New Year holidays, when companies return to work, payment of current payments will begin in rubles. The domestic currency will get a breather.

The state of the Russian economy in 2016 turned out to be not so deplorable as most economists predicted. The ruble has not collapsed, factories have not closed, pensions are paid on time, and oil has not fallen much in price. This inspires slight optimism and gives hope that next year will be the same or even better. Therefore, everyone is attentively listening to experts and the government in order to understand which dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 is correct. Because for the majority, it is this indicator that shows what the next year will be like.

What price of the ruble did the Ministry of Finance and the Government set in the 2017 Budget

And he, according to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, will mark Russia's exit from the existing economic crisis. Economists draw this conclusion when reading the 2017 Budget. Since the forecast of analysts written in it indicates a change in the vector of development of the Russian economy from falling to stability and slight growth. In particular, the following indicators are indicated there:

• average annual inflation - 5.5-6%;
• GDP will decrease by 0.3-0.7%;
• Russian Urals oil will be sold at an average of $40/bbl;
• budget deficit - about 2.7 trillion rubles (3.16% of GDP);
• gross income - 13.5 trillion rubles.

Budget structure table

Regarding the dollar value forecast for 2017, according to the Government and the Ministry of Finance, it will strengthen slightly next year. At the beginning of the year, the dollar will be sold at 63 rubles, in the middle about 65 rubles, and at the end of the year - 67.5 rubles. The budget also spelled out the value of the US currency for 2018 (68.7 rubles) and for 2019 (71.1 rubles).

It should be noted that the Ministry of Economy and Development had a different forecast: 2017 - 65.5 rubles, 2018 - 65 rubles, 2019 - 64.4 rubles.

Latest news on oil prices and the Fed's key rate

How true the expectations of the Government and the Ministry of Finance are can be seen from how they compare with the forecasts of world experts regarding the price of oil and the value of the dollar for everything, and not just for the ruble.

The latest news regarding oil is:

1. The new US president, Donald Trump, owes a lot to the oil industry and the "shale" in particular, as they sponsored his election campaign. From this we can conclude that the head of the "Free World" is not interested in cheap oil.
2. The agreement between the OPEC countries and the Russian Federation on the reduction of production volumes has been signed and, at least partially, is being implemented. That also does not contribute to the cheapening of oil.
3. Experts' forecasts regarding China indicate the imminent fall of its economy. Consequently, the demand for oil will fall, and then its price.

If we add to this news the Fed's statement about a three-stage increase in the key rate in 2017 to 0.75%, then it turns out that the dollar itself will rise in price, and oil, although it should rise slightly in price, will remain at the current level (since the dollar will rise in price). In other words, the latest news from the West contributes to the strengthening of the ruble as the strongest currency in the world. What did he become at the end of 2016.

Analyst forecasts in Russia and abroad

The opinions of specialized experts regarding the forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2017 largely agree with the figures of the Government, but with their own nuances.

What is being said about the value of the dollar in 2017 in Russia

For example, the forecast of TeleTrade analysts speaks of an increase in oil prices at the end of the third or fourth quarter of next year. That will contribute to the growth of the ruble against the dollar.

TeleTrade expert Oleg Bogdanov on the oil market and the value of the ruble in 2017.

Analyst Vladimir Tikhomirov from BCS also believes that the position of the dollar in Russia will depend on the cost of oil, but, in his opinion, both markets will remain at current levels. Therefore, the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 is not so optimistic and points to a mark of 67 rubles / dollars.

Other Russian experts adhere to similar positions with some nuances, but with the same conclusions on the value of the dollar. The only exceptions are adherents of the theory of Elliot Waves, who predict the repetition of the events of December 2014 in late 2017 or early 2018.

Opinions of Western experts

The forecasts of experts from the European Union and the United States, oddly enough, are more optimistic about Russia. They believe that in 2017 oil prices will rise and there will be a partial lifting of sanctions. Which together will raise the Russian economy by 1-2%, and with it the ruble. Approximate numbers:

• International economic corporation "Commerzbank" - 40-50 rubles / dollar;
• Morgan Stanley - 55-60 rubles / dollar;
• Standard & Poor's - about 60 rubles / dollar.

Of course, there are other forecasts in the West. For example, George Soros believes that Russian companies in 2017 will not be able to pay off their foreign debts and this will lead to the collapse of the ruble. The same forecast is given by analysts in Bank of America - 90 rubles / dollar by the end of 2017. These expectations are due to sanctions restrictions for many Russian companies, due to which they will not be able to refinance next year.

Forecasts of experts of supranational structures

With regard to international organizations that "determine the fate of the World", their forecast for the value of the ruble for 2017 is as follows:

• The Eurasian Bank believes that next year the ruble will win back about 10%;
• The EBRD predicts that the Russian currency in 2017 will cost about 66-69 rubles / dollar;
• The IMF talks about the growth of the ruble by 1-3%.

Results of the year from TeleTrade

Summary

Summing up, we can say that the dollar exchange rate forecasts for 2017 for the Russian Federation differ little from all experts and point to 58-68 rubles per dollar. This is of course a large framework, but not as much as in 2014-2015. Which is good both for the country and for ordinary citizens. Since this forecast indicates a stabilization of the situation in the Russian Federation and a possible exit from the economic crisis in the near future.

The instability of the economy is most clearly reflected in the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro against the ruble. At the same time, not only internal processes are important, but also the news that is happening, for example, in Ukraine, Syria and other countries. Everyone undertakes to predict the ratio of currencies to each other in 2017 - from experts, analysts and politicians to psychics and astrologers. It is also important for the forecast for the next year - what will be the situation with oil at the end of 2017.

For example, Bank of America modeled a negative scenario in October, according to which the cost of a barrel of oil would be $25. In this case, more than 95 rubles will have to be paid for one dollar bill. However, it is better to trust all the same those who are inside the country. For example, the opinion of the head and chairman of the Central Bank should be taken into account by you. So, Alexey Simanovsky expressed optimistic assumptions that we can expect the strengthening of the domestic currency at a stable level in the economic market from the beginning of 2017.

Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for 2017 in Russia from experts

The dollar exchange rate targets not achieved in 2016 will be achieved in 2017. The euro will reach parity with the dollar. From the level 0,98 euro may rise due to the end of the QE program of the European Central Bank. Today 1 EUR = 1.0523 USD. The ruble has already strengthened quite strongly. It is possible to depreciate a little more, and then there will be a rebound to the area above 70 rubles per US dollar. Look at the forecast made in 2015:

The maximum exchange rate may reach 75 rubles per US dollar, which may coincide with the achievement of highs in the dollar index and lows in oil and the euro. Forecast for the dollar, as in 2016: it is predicted to reach a maximum for the US dollar index. The growth of the US dollar against all world currencies will end. After that, the dollar index will begin to decline and the growth of oil, gold, silver and euro on world markets will resume.

Forecast of the dollar in Russia . Lows: 53.99 - 55.18 can be reached at the beginning of March 2017, Maximums 72 - 78 rubles per dollar can be reached in early May 2017.

The maximum targets for the US dollar index are in the range 103,63 - 108,86 :

Upon reaching these goals, you need to exit the dollar in euro, gold, silver, etc. After reaching highs on the dollar index, the dollar will fall for at least 2 years:

Well and euro will rise accordingly:

Did the forecast for 2016 come true:

In 2016, the US dollar index is forecast to peak. The growth of the US dollar against all world currencies will end. After that, the dollar index will begin to decline and the growth of oil, gold, silver and euro on world markets will resume. Accordingly, in 2016 the Russian ruble will also begin to grow. In 2016, the dollar will begin to gradually decline.

The exact date of the tipping point is difficult to predict, but we assume that this moment will come either in March 2016 or by the time of the US elections.

A return to 50 rubles per US dollar is not predicted in 2016, but depreciation of the dollar to 65 rubles quite possibly. Most likely, the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2016 will fluctuate in the range of 68-80 rubles per US dollar.

What we see: The dollar exchange rate in 2016 gradually decreased from 82 to 60 rubles per dollar:

We did not expect the dollar to fall below 65 rubles, but this was due to the rise in oil prices (dependence of the dollar on oil prices). It was quite difficult in 2015 to predict that OPEC would agree at the end of 2016 to reduce oil production :)

Oil prices in 2016:

According to the forecast made in the summer of 2015, the minimum exchange rate of the dollar should have turned in the range 61,009 - 62,286:

dollar index approached the maximum and exceeded the mark of 100, but did not reach the maximum in 2016:

According to the 2015 forecast, the maximum on the dollar index is in the range of up to 110 points:

The dollar to euro exchange rate in 2016 has not yet reached parity 1: 1, but the elections have already passed, the Fed raised the rate:

US dollar USD exchange rate by years in Russia:

Euro EUR exchange rate by years in Russia: