What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions. What will happen to the dollar and euro in the near future? Euro exchange rate forecast fresh expert opinions

The "behavior" of the European currency in recent years is surprising. Instead of rising in price, or at least “fluctuating”, as in previous years, the euro exchange rate has been steadily declining this autumn. Since the end of September, the euro has lost almost 2 UAH in value. The autumn maximum, at the rate of the National Bank, was recorded on September 28 and amounted to 33 UAH and almost 13 kopecks. By November 13, the euro was already worth UAH 31.43. That is, it turns out that every day the euro becomes cheaper by at least 1 kopeck.

According to experts, the reasons for such a depreciation should not be sought in the Ukrainian economy. In our country (as in many others) the euro exchange rate is set through the dollar exchange rate. And, if the reasons for the exchange rate change are related to the situation inside our country, the dollar and euro exchange rates change synchronously. If they move in different directions (as, for example, now, when the dollar is practically stable, and the euro is getting cheaper), most likely, the reason lies in the change in the dollar exchange rate against the euro (or vice versa).

The fall of the euro and the strengthening of the local currency is now happening in many countries. For example, in the UK, the media write that the pound sterling today is the strongest in the last 3 months. The Moldovan media are full of headlines “The euro is shocking”, “The euro has collapsed”, etc. In Belarus they write that the euro exchange rate is almost equal to the dollar exchange rate.

In the countries of the eurozone, they admit that the euro fell “below the plinth” against the dollar, breaking the lowest record over the past year and a half.

One of the main reasons for the fall of the euro currency, the local media called the ongoing preparations for Brexit. In particular, a particularly sharp fall in the euro was recorded after the statement by the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, that an agreement on Britain's withdrawal from the European Union would be signed in the coming weeks. Also, a commotion in the Eurozone has caused Italy's budget for next year, which includes a deficit of 2.5%, despite the fact that the country already owes 130% of its GDP to donors. More precisely, not so much the budget itself (in Ukraine, for example, the budget deficit is no smaller), but the conflict between Italy and the EU that arose because of it. A country that does not want to cut spending is predicted to be expelled from the eurozone and from the EU.

These and other shocks in the Eurozone significantly weaken both the European economy and the local currency. While the US economy, on the contrary, is showing strong growth.

Europe is in big trouble

As for the reasons for the fall of the euro, the experts we interviewed turned out to be surprisingly unanimous.

“Several factors influence the euro-dollar rate today. First, Brexit. But this is not news, and therefore not the main factor. Much more influenced by the results of the economy. If we compare the economies of the US and Europe, then the US has a more successful economy. There is greater GDP growth, the lowest unemployment rate over the past 15 years (about 3.8%, while in Europe it is almost 7%). And all the attempts of Europe to show in some way better results than those of America are not working yet. As a result, there is a disproportion and yes, the euro loses to the dollar,” explains President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center Alexander Okhrimenko.

Economist, expert analyst Boris Kushniruk draws attention to the fact that the exchange rate of the dollar-euro pair does not stand still.

“The exchange rates of the dollar and the euro are constantly showing a “swing”. Moreover, the cycle takes several years. Either the euro rises in price against the dollar, or it depreciates. Now the euro is weakening, and the dollar is strengthening. One of the reasons is that Europe now has more problems and uncertainty. Problems with the budget of Italy, uncertainty about Brexit, problems in relations between states, for example, Hungary and Poland, etc. And in the United States, the situation is predictable, the midterm elections have passed, the economy is growing. In addition, the United States raised the interest rate, which makes the dollar a more profitable currency, which means it is more profitable to transfer funds into dollars,” says Boris Kushniruk.

Senior Analyst of FOREX CLUB Andrey Shevchishin also explains the fall of the euro to problems in Europe and the more advantageous position of the United States.

“The external trigger for the situation with the dollar and the euro is the US-China trade war, as well as US trade restrictions, which have led to a narrowing of business activity in Europe. The industry is falling, the automotive industry is especially sensitive. Eurozone GDP in the 3rd quarter added only 0.2%, which was the lowest level since the 2nd quarter of 2014. The internal trigger is the political component. Brexit talks are tough, but still moving forward. But the negotiations on the budget of Italy reached an impasse. Because of Italy, the risks of confrontation within the EU are growing, which hurts investor confidence. In addition, the yield of eurodebt does not attract investors, the risks have increased. Germany's 10-year debt is 0.4%, while Italian debt rose to 3.5% amid risks. With regard to US bonds, investors are more favorable, and the yield has already consolidated above 3.15%, which supports the dollar, ”explains the expert.

Among other things, global risks of economic growth, which have already resulted in a deep correction of the stock market, are a common factor, Andriy Shevchishin believes.

“It is these fears of a new crisis that lead to the redistribution of capital and the flight into the dollar. This supports the dollar against the general background and weakens other currencies,” he says.

Trend change is not predicted yet

Speaking about the immediate prospects for the euro, the experts are rather reserved in their assessments and rather pessimistic.

“Many analysts believe that the euro will continue to lose to the dollar. Until Europe is able to offer some way out, a new indicator for growth,” Alexander Okhrimenko said briefly.

Boris Kushniruk outlines the same trend.

Explaining his thesis about the crisis, the expert says:

“The world is in the midst of a global crisis that began in 2007. And we will be in crisis until 2023-2025, when the reformatting of both the world economy and the international legal system should take place. Because the existing order is not able to solve the pressing problems. The current model was written 80 years ago, and it no longer corresponds to the current stage of world development. The movement of goods, finance, capital, people... Could we have imagined then that hundreds and thousands of Africans (refugees) would go to Europe? And there are many such problems that have no solution within the framework of the current world order. And these contradictions hook Europe much more than the US.”.

Boris Kushniruk recalls that the IMF predicts a new wave of the global crisis somewhere at the beginning of 2020. Moreover, according to the expert, it will be a crisis associated with a change in technological structures.

“The crisis of overproduction is usually short, 1-3 quarters, and then there is a new growth. But the crisis of the technological order lasts longer, and here everything is much less predictable. Therefore, now no one can say what it will lead to. For example, now almost all global companies have announced that they are launching a line of electric vehicles. Can you imagine the scale of change? First, electric vehicles are technologically much simpler, there are fewer components, which means that a large number of people will lose their jobs. There will be an oversupply of gas stations, the oil refining industry will change. A huge number of people who are involved in the current processes will become unnecessary and lose their jobs. For example, to refuel an electric car, you don’t need someone to stand and sell you an electrician. And this is just one example of the coming changes, which, according to forecasts, will peak in 2023-2025. Now the crisis is just beginning, and we still do not feel what incredible processes we are in,” Boris Kushniruk predicts.

How much will the euro cost by the New Year, 2019

“At the end of this year, we will see a picture when for 1 euro they will give 1 dollar and less than 10 cents. And world analysts believe that this situation will continue until Europe makes a breakthrough,” says Alexander Okhrimenko.

Judging by this forecast, if the dollar by the New Year will cost, for example, UAH 29, then the euro will cost only UAH 29.3.

"If the situation does not change, the euro may roll back against the dollar to the 1.1 zone, and next year continue moving to 1.05 - closer to the end of the 1st quarter," Andriy Shevchyshyn believes.

However, neither a complete collapse of the euro nor an excessive strengthening of the dollar should be expected, at least in the short term, experts say.

“There is a line that these currencies will not cross. The United States also does not benefit much from the strengthening of the dollar, because this leads to a rise in the cost of American goods in foreign markets. So the States will take measures to prevent too significant strengthening of the dollar against other currencies of the world,” explains Boris Kushniruk.

Answering the question in what currency should Ukrainians keep their savings now, Oleksandr Okhrimenko says that it depends on how long a person saves money.

“If you are going to save money for 5-10 years, then it would be appropriate Keep 50% of your savings in dollars and 50% in euros. Because in 10 years the situation can change very significantly. But if you shift from one currency to another, you will definitely lose. You can play dollar-euro only with very large amounts,” the expert says.

If we are talking about the need to accumulate or save in the short term, according to Alexander Okhrimenko, “Hryvnia is definitely more profitable” .

On Thursday, the ECB will hold a meeting on monetary policy, from which the markets do not expect any special changes. However, a subsequent press conference by the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, may clarify the regulator's plans regarding the prospects for reducing the financial stimulus program and changing the interest rate.

Given the dollar's corrective decline in the market, isn't this a good buying opportunity?

Do not open deals in advance!

The previous meeting of the ECB was pivotal (important estimates and forecasts were published) and caused a strong reaction in the foreign exchange market. In particular, the single currency lost 2.5% in response to comments 6 weeks ago.

Remembering the mid-June meeting, I want warn against opening a position in advance. The single currency was gaining for two days before the meeting, and immediately after the commentary was published, the reaction was also in the form of purchases. And only after the euro soared to monthly highs, active sales began.

Nor should it be naive to assume that if Draghi collapsed the euro last time, then this time he will definitely support the strengthening of the single currency.

Also, do not think that the ECB will “raise its paws up” and come up with tough rhetoric (positive for the euro) in the light of Trump's comments that the policies of the eurozone and China contribute to the depreciation of their own currencies. Probably, Draghi will again have to be reminded of the independence of the ECB.

Germany will not let the meeting be positive

At the same time, it is worth considering that over the past 6 weeks since the last meeting, we have received the actual introduction of retaliatory sanctions by the European Union, a deterioration in business sentiment from ZEW and foreign trade balance indicators, on the one hand, and an increase in inflationary pressure, on the other. However, keep in mind that inflationary trends are much easier to predict and much of the current data is already priced into market quotes and market participants' expectations.

In my opinion, it is worth paying attention to how negatively the German business circles assess the harm from trade wars. This is a factor that has yet to have an impact on actual business activity. I also think that such a serious factor of uncertainty will not allow the ECB to come out with more positive rhetoric than in the middle of last month.

It is better not to expect softness from Draghi

If markets think along similar lines, then Draghi's positive tone and tougher rhetoric will come as a real surprise to the markets and a strong support factor for the single currency's rise, with the potential for a return to June highs at 1.1850.

More likely, however, is the continuation of a soft tone in the Bank's policy and even more concern about the uncertainty surrounding the "trade wars". Such a position is unlikely to become a reason for a repeat of the collapse of June, but it could potentially cool the ardor of buyers of the single currency by turning EURUSD down from the upper limit of the trading range of 1.150-1.1750.

To begin with, it is worth noting that the euro is a foreign currency that occupies the second place in the ranking of monetary units for which hard times have come today. There are many reasons for the depreciation of the euro at the moment, the situation as a whole was also affected by Greece, which is mired in debt, like in silks, and refuses to repay its debts to direct debtors. It is difficult to give accurate forecasts of the exchange rate of the euro against the ruble at the end of 2019, but international experts still predict a period when the euro will fall even more. This will be discussed in this article.

What can affect the euro exchange rate in 2019

The exchange rate of the euro against the Russian ruble depends primarily on the following factors:

1. The interest rate set by the European Central Bank. So, at this time it is reduced to the minimum threshold value. In this regard, experts are implementing additional programs that stimulate the value of QE.
2. The amount of public debt in the European Union. In addition to Greece, loans were provided to Spain and Portugal. The decrease in the profitability of securities directly proportionally affects the foreign exchange rate.
3. If the price of Russian oil falls sharply, the foreign currency will also suddenly rise. This is quite possible in the absence of free capacities in American oil storage facilities and with regular deliveries of black gold from Iran. The oil market does not shine with stability, so at any moment the situation may change towards a decrease in the value of the ruble. For the domestic economy, such fluctuations do not mean anything good.
4. The ongoing crisis in Ukraine. The war escalates further, and peace negotiations are more like a farce that does not give any results. The neighboring state is trying to influence the Russian Federation with sanctions from the European Union. Either way, the new restrictions are forcing Russian citizens to tighten their belts.
5. Economic instability. A foreign investor leaves the territory of Russia and transfers his assets to another territory. More than a hundred financial and credit institutions may become bankrupt due to their own insolvency.

What to Expect in Fall 2018

If in the fall of 2015 the euro was 70.38 rubles, then in the second half of January it is expected that the euro will reach 74.35 banknotes in the national currency.

The highest rates of the ruble occurred in April-May 2015, when the euro fell to the value of 52.9 rubles. In June, the foreign currency was already calculated at 61.95 rubles, at the end of July this figure changed to 67 rubles. As of August 14, 2015, the euro remained at around 65 rubles.

Last update:  03/09/2020

Reading time: 13 min. | Views: 51160

Hello, dear readers of the financial magazine "site"! Today we will try to answer the following questions: what will happen to the dollar in the near future; how much will the ruble and dollar cost in 2020; when will the crisis in Russia end and so on.

After all, the current economic situation causes unrest among the citizens of Russia with its total instability . The stability of the national currency causes concern, because all people are worried about the well-being of their own family, some are confused by the rise in prices for essential products. Many people save money in rubles and worry about their savings.

Anyway, and businessmen, and housewives, and students, and pensioners Concerned about one issue: what will happen to the ruble/dollar in the near future? No one can give an exact answer to these questions, even experienced analysts do not dare to make specific forecasts.

Some experts say that our currency will gradually get stronger, while others, on the contrary, advise waiting for the ruble to fall soon. Which of them is right? People are puzzled and looking for answers to these questions.

So, from this article you will learn:

• What will happen to the dollar in the near future;
• What will happen to the ruble and what will be the ruble exchange rate + dollar exchange rate forecast for 2020;
• What will happen to the ruble in the near future - latest news + our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate.

Having read the material to the end , you will find out our vision on the forecast of the ruble and the dollar.

If you want to know what will happen to the dollar in the near future, what will happen to the ruble, etc., then read our article to the end

1. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - scenarios and forecasts + expert opinions 📊

Everyone knows perfectly well that the exchange rate of the Russian national currency directly depends on the price of oil. Sanctions, which are carried out by Western countries, also affect the formation of the national currency. It is difficult to say what will happen to the ruble in 2020, even focusing on the policy of the Central Bank.

The imposition of sanctions against Russia was motivated by political actions in Ukraine, which began in 2013, when the revolution began in Ukraine. As a result, one part of the population began to resist. The inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula were the first to express their resistance.

The Autonomous Republic was the first to express a desire to withdraw from unitary Ukraine. Yes, in 2014 a referendum was held which brought together more than 83 % votes for secession from Ukraine and further accession of the peninsula to the Federation as a subject.

The international community, led by the United States, considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as a consequence hostilities and act of aggression in relation to the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, despite the fact that the inhabitants of Crimea themselves wanted secession from Ukraine.

As is known, October 14, 2014, EU candidate countries, joined the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Brussels. These sanctions limit the access of Russian banks to global capital. They also affected the restriction of the work of such industries in Russia as oil and aircraft building.

In particular, the restrictions apply to the following Russian oil and gas companies:

• "Rosneft";
• "Transneft";
• Gazpromneft.

The following Russian banks were affected by the sanctions:

• "Sberbank of Russia";
• "VTB";
• Gazprombank;
• "VEB";
• Rosselkhozbank.

The sanctions did not bypass the industry of the Russian Federation:

• Uralvagonzavod;
• "Oboronprom";
• United Aircraft Corporation.

The sanctions consist in prohibiting residents of the European Union and their companies from trading in securities with a validity period of over 30 days , Russia's assistance in the extraction of petroleum products.

In addition, the Russians are prohibited operations with European accounts, investments, securities and even consultations European companies. The European Union also banned the transfer to Russia technology, equipment and intellectual property (programs, developments) that can be used in the defense or civil industry.

Introduced sanctions against some Russian companies that were prohibited from supplying special-purpose goods, services and technologies to the European Union.

The restrictions also affected many officials who are prohibited from using their assets located in any of the EU countries, not to mention entry into the EU, which is also prohibited.

Canada has imposed similar sanctions. Citizens who are on the restrictive list of this country are prohibited from visiting it for any purpose, and all assets located in the country are frozen. Also, Canadian companies do not have the right to provide companies subject to sanctions funding for more than 30 days.

Sanctions imposed by the US authorities relate, first of all, to the supply of technologies and programs to the territory of Russia to support the Russian military forces. The sanctions also affected the ban on the supply of space components and technologies to Russia.

Now Russia is prohibited from using spacecraft, which were developed by US forces, as well as which include elements developed by the state. As a result of this ban, Russia was unable to launch the Astra 2G.

America banned issuing a list of Russian banks loan for more than 90 days .
All sanctions imposed by other states against Russia include a ban on the entry of an authorized list of persons into the territory of the country, freezing of their assets located on the territory of the state, a ban on Russia from participating in the capital market, as well as a ban on any trade, economic relationship among companies, banks and so on.

As you can see, the imposed sanctions are good hit the economy and development of the Russian Federation. Is it possible to do something for the normal functioning of the country and the stabilization of the economy?

Some experts express their opinion about the actions on the part of Russia to lift sanctions, or prevent their tightening.

First of all, it is recommended to show a refusal to support the militias in the Donbass. It is clear that Crimea will no longer become Ukrainian, but the hiding of refugees in different cities of Russia can prevent the emergence of new sanctions.

Russia needs to take a neutral stance and not respond to the sanctions imposed by the European Union. With Russia's retaliatory sanctions, the European Union introduces retaliatory bans. Moreover, the EU and the US have more leverage than Russia.

Russia needs to be friends with those countries that have not yet imposed sanctions against the Federation, thereby establishing its economic ties with them. This primarily concerns countries of the Middle East .

Having cooperated, it is possible to issue joint bonds, investment projects. The Russian authorities themselves understand this, but they have not yet taken decisive steps.

Moreover, such a friendly policy with Asian countries will help Russia improve your export. Trade in oil products is now at a low level, and all because of prohibitions and sanctions.

Expanding supplies of oil and natural gas will help Russia eventually achieve a share of the stabilization of the national currency.

Neither side wants to make concessions. Europe is afraid of turning Ukraine into a so-called black hole in its very center. And at the same time, no one wants a final break with Moscow.

In this situation, it would be nice if Russia made a compromise, which would undoubtedly play its role. It is not worth waiting for such actions from the US government - having caved in under Russia, Trump will finally lose his rating, which is not at the highest level anyway.

What will happen to the ruble and the dollar in the near future - analysis and expert opinions

2. What will happen to the dollar in the near future and what will happen to the ruble in 2020 📈📉

In recent years, the exchange rate of the national currency of Russia has fallen more than than 20%. The population has never seen such a strong fall of the ruble. Many people are puzzled by the question of how the national currency will continue to behave. This is especially of concern to people who are going buy or sell assets, real estate, foreign currency and just people who are worried about the situation in the country. By the way, you can buy or sell currency, stocks and other assets at this broker .

The ruble is falling, and it is not known whether there will be enough money for a standard basket of essential goods, not to mention luxury goods.

The current situation in relations with Ukraine, the fall in oil and natural gas prices, and external restrictive sanctions forced the ruble to change its stable position. And oil and gas, as you know, accounts for more than 70% of the total state budget.

Also, the depreciation of the ruble will affect some countries that depend on cash flows from Russia, such as the Caucasus and some Asian countries. The result of this is the depreciation of the national currencies of these states.

Conflict situations in Syria and Ukraine only complicate the situation of the national currency.

The work of the Central Bank with foreign currency did not bring the required results in stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. According to some officials, there is only one way left that affects the ruble exchange rate.

They claim that they will now influence the course through inflation targeting. basis method is a set of measures that can affect the inflation rate and the country's credit policy.

Experts identify three main scenarios regarding the state of the ruble:

1. optimistic
2. anxious
3. realistic.

1st scenario - Optimistic

If you listen to the government, then Russia is on the way to restoration and economic growth . The price of a barrel of oil is expected to stabilize in Asia and Korea, which will rise to $95, and the dollar should acquire its former price value. 30-40 rubles.

The percentage of GDP will change due to the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia, which will increase the indicator by 0,3-0,6 % . Such changes are expected in autumn 2020.

2nd Scenario - Alarm Scenario

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Oil market collapses only worsen the situation of stabilizing the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. If we turn to statistical data, we can say that in 2016 the average exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the ruble was 68 rubles, now the US dollar is worth 65-75 rubles.

Our government's plans, according to some analysts and experts, do not at all include the adoption of measures to stabilize national work. The development of exports is what the state's efforts are aimed at.

Of course, the export of goods will bring additional income to the country, as Russia copes with the production deficit. The capacity of the state production forces does not allow processing the crops harvested by Russian farmers and diggers.

Do not wait for the ruble to stabilize its performance. If we look at the statistics 2014-2015, we can recall that the percentage of expectation of a decrease in the level of gross domestic product was equal to 0.2, but already at the beginning of next year, this economic indicator reached almost 5% .

The fall of the economy can not have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate. When calculating this percentage of GDP decline, the cost per barrel of oil is taken as the basis. As well as the conditions for the operation of all prohibitions and sanctions. Such low economic indicators, whatever one may say, reduce the investment attractiveness of potential domestic and foreign investors. And this, in turn, significantly reduces the inflow of material resources into the country, which adversely affects the Russian economy.

With such far from optimistic data, we can say that the ruble will begin to lose its current position.

Several reasons will contribute to this:

• The first factor is forecasting a decline in the price of oil on the world market. First of all, it concerns natural gas, which by its export brings a large share of the country's income. The same situation is predicted in the regions of Japan, America and Europe.
• The second factor is the country's geopolitics. The recent annexation of Crimea has led to the emergence of economic sanctions by Western states, which also impede the stabilization of the ruble. The development of the Crimean peninsula entailed a large outflow of the country's capital.

Under such events, GDP is expected to decline to a figure that will be 3-3,5% . The dollar will stabilize, its value will be 50-65 rubles.

3rd Scenario - Realistic Scenario

As shown by the results of the vote held on June 22, 2015, the EU will not lift sanctions against Russia. We can confidently say that the sanctions will not be lifted and they will remain at their current level. With a possible aggravation with Ukraine, which is actively developing, the sanctions will only increase.

As for the price of oil, in this scenario it will remain the same price of $40-60 per barrel. The level of GDP will approach zero, and according to some analysts and forecasts of the World Bank, GDP in Russia will even have a negative indicator. The fall GDP will be about 0,7- 1 % .

Reasons for the fall and rise of the ruble. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - forecasts and opinions

3. Reasons for the growth and fall of the ruble - the main factors 📋

In this situation, every citizen of Russia monitors the behavior of the ruble in the Forex currency market. Many factors influence the decline and appreciation of the exchange rate. And now, more than ever, it is important for Russians not only to preserve their capital, but also to increase it. To do this, we have written an article about what a novice trader needs to know for successful Forex trading.

What influences the behavior of the national currency?

* Factors of growth of the ruble

Among the many reasons, one can single out those that have positive impact on the behavior of the national currency, namely:

• Country Politics. This factor directly associated with the ruble exchange rate, especially in the current situation today. Of course, most government decisions are made for the good of the country and are aimed at the development of Russia.
• Securities . The investment of Western partners in securities and assets of Russian companies contributes to the stabilization of the ruble on the world market. But, unfortunately, investing in securities as a process is underdeveloped. Perhaps, in the near future, Western investors will become more actively invest your capital while earning income in the form of dividends.
• The cost of oil. Everyone has long known that Russia has rich oil resources . Moreover, there is enough oil not only for the needs of the country, but also for exporting it to countries that do not have such a resource. By selling oil, Russia enriches its state budget. That is, if the price of oil falls, then the country receives less income, respectively.
• The ratio of the population to the national currency. It is not immediately clear what the meaning of these words is, people normally relate to him. People stopped trusting national currency, deposits in rubles began to decrease. But this significantly affects the exchange rate of the ruble. The more the national currency is attracted, the better the country's lending policy will become, respectively, economic growth will not be long in coming. Moreover, the ideal situation is when foreign investors want to invest in rubles. But, for this, first of all, there must be economic stability. Therefore, the inhabitants of the Russian Federation, as residents, and Foreigners, have a great influence on the stability of the national economy and on the ruble exchange rate, in particular.
• Increasing the rate of national production. Increasing this indicator will allow not only to fulfill the planned production volumes, but also to exceed it. A high volume of production will not only meet the needs of the country, but also export goods and products, which will bring additional income to the state budget.

* Factors of the fall of the ruble

In weight with all the positive factors, there are also factors negatively affecting the ruble exchange rate . They depreciate the ruble in relation to other currencies.

These factors have a huge impact, our government should take serious measures to prevent them.

1. Outflow of Russian capital. This is, first of all, the movement of assets to foreign countries. The unstable position of the ruble forces investors to transfer money and their investments into foreign currency. By exchanging our money savings into another currency, we ourselves, without suspecting it, provide stability of a foreign state and its course. This is how capital is withdrawn from Russia. This has a devastating effect on the positions of the Russian national currency. The result of such negative actions for the country is the fall of industry and the economy as a whole. People refuse to invest in the Russian economy, thereby ensuring their own low prosperity.
2. Foreign exchange rate. In this situation, the leading currency is exactly the one that has a strong position in the global foreign exchange market. It's impossible to influence it. This currency, first of all, is the dollar, which has a stable position, thanks to constant measures by the United States aimed at strengthening the national currency of the country. America is confidently strengthening its positions. With the introduction of measures to stabilize the dollar exchange rate by America, the ruble loses its position. It is simply impossible to take measures to prevent the depreciation in such a situation, even with all the forces of the Russian economy.
3. Game of the population with exchange rates. The desire to make money on the exchange rate arises among the majority of Russians. They invest their savings not in rubles, but in dollars or euros, looking at stable foreign exchange rates. In this way, people secure their savings through a stable currency. In moments of a strong fall in the ruble exchange rate, huge transfers were made exchange of Russian money into foreign currencies, which also ensures the fall of the national exchange rate. Such actions confirm the fact that Russians do not trust the government, especially their promises that the ruble will soon stabilize.
4. Central Bank Measures. During the fall of the national currency, the bank refuses to convert the ruble into the dollar. This situation could prevent a significant fall of the ruble.
5. Share of gross domestic product. Russian production, by and large, stands still, industrial plants are not expanding. The country produces such a small share of its own goods and products that the income received from their sale is only enough to pay wages to workers. State-owned enterprises stand still, working on old equipment. The equipment that has been left since the times of the Soviet Union does not allow working at the capacity that is necessary for the development of the economy and the state as a whole. All this leads to distrust of people in domestic production, forcing them to buy imported goods.
6. Economic stagnation. This factor is a consequence of the low share of GDP in the country. Stagnation, that is, the stagnation of the national economy, is the result of preference for foreign goods when choosing one or another product. And this is not strange, because imported goods offer higher quality for about the same price category as a domestic manufacturer. The West is known for its advanced technologies production, which, unfortunately, Russia cannot yet boast of. Thus, giving preference to the goods of another producing country, we do not contribute to the development of the Russian economy and reduce the country's balance of payments, which directly affects the depreciation of the national currency.

4. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - expert opinion 🗒

As mentioned above, experts cannot come to a common denominator and no one can determine the specific economic situation in the country, since their opinions are quite contradictory. But one thing can be said that 2020 will clearly be a difficult test for Russians, national economy and for ruble positions.

To understand the situation with the dollar, it is worth mentioning the forecasts of some economic experts in this regard.

💡 We recommend that you first read the opinion of experts and analytics from the company " ForexClub ". At the link you will find tabs and sections with fresh forecasts by a specialist, you can also buy and sell various assets through this broker.

Through the "Tools" tab, the purchase and sale of instruments (shares, currencies, etc.) is available. Analytics tab provides reviews, opinions and forecasts

Former Minister of Finance of Russia, Alexey Kudrin , believes that in the near future the country's economy is subject to a huge downturn. This opinion was served by the current political situation. As a result, the purchasing power of Russian citizens will decrease, which in turn will affect the economy as a whole, not to mention the ruble exchange rate.

modern economist, Vladimir Tikhomir , I fully agree with the opinion of Kudrin. According to the economist, the recovery of the economy and the achieved level of stability are just a temporary phenomenon, which will soon lead to the collapse of the ruble as a national currency.

The fall of the ruble as a national currency and the strong growth of the dollar portends Nikolay Salabuto . While holding the post of head of Finnam Management, the reason for this situation is associated with the imminent fall in oil prices over the course of several months.

According to the expert, the American national currency will rise to the mark 200 rubles per dollar .

Igor believes that several factors influenced this:

• restrictive sanctions, which will last at least until next year;
• the cost of oil, which will decline. This is due to Western competitors who export "black gold" on more favorable terms. The United States increases oil exports every year, thereby "cutting off the oxygen" for large Russian supplies;
• national economy, which is completely dependent on the environment and the economic situation in the country. This industry cannot develop independently, and directly depends on the geopolitical situation. The Russian economy requires constant modernization and development on the part of government agencies.
• US Federal Reserve, whose policy will be associated with some activities.

Igor Nikolaev expresses his opinion about the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Igor believes that the current measures and methods of the Central Bank are absolutely correct, and there is no need to subject the bank's policy to rethinking.

But this will in no way affect the stabilization of the national currency, the fall of which cannot be prevented. To eliminate this situation, according to the head of Finnam Management, it is necessary to eliminate the destructive factors cited above, since they all have an impact on the ruble exchange rate.

Sergey Khestanov , the director of ALOR Group of Companies, believes that the factors of the depreciation of the ruble can be conditionally divided into two categories: subjective and objective factors.

Subjective factors include those that have no justification from a political, legal or economic point of view. Here Khestanov includes, first of all, the opinions of experts (since each of them expresses his original point of view, guided by certain factors), as well as the outflow of funds.

Objective factors include those processes that directly affect the ruble exchange rate. These are external sanctions of other states, and the country's external debt.

It is impossible to predict the behavior of these factors, but the analyst is sure that the price of oil in $74 per barrel, will lead to an even greater fall of the ruble. This price will help reduce 10-15 % from the current value of the ruble.

The opinion of a modern financial analyst, Vitaly Kulagin , more reassuring. He believes that the position of the ruble today is the starting point. The analyst says that already in 2020, the national currency will adapt to the current situation and begin grow .

These are the opinions of leading analysts, as you can see, they are completely contradictory and do not have a single consensus. Before accepting the position and opinion of one of them, it is necessary for oneself to understand the strength of the factors influencing the position of the national currency.

5. Oil forecast for 2020 - news and forecasts 🛢

The cost of oil depends on the value of the dollar compared to the ruble. This dependency is shown as follows: with the growth of the dollar, the price of oil is falling, respectively the ruble is losing ground . When oil prices rise, the dollar falls and the ruble rises.

Graph of the dependence of the value of the ruble on the cost of oil

Impossible to predict oil price in 2020. The External Economic Bank predicts the cost of 6 $0 per barrel or more . At the same time, the resistance level of this price is at the price of $70, and the support level is $42.

Thanks to the latest news, the cost of a barrel of oil is falling. Resistance at this stage is $75 and $85. If these levels are broken through, the price of oil will probably “go” to $98-100. Support — $45, when “breaking through” down — leaving the range of $25

At the beginning of 2016, the price of oil took the position of an absolute minimum over the past decade and was equal to $28 per barrel. That is, the cost of oil can take any price at any time of the year.

6. What will happen to the ruble in 2020 - the coming years: breaking news + expert forecasts of leading banks 📰

For a long time, the ruble has not been able to stabilize its position against other foreign currencies, such as dollar and Euro. Due to difficult economic circumstances, the ruble lost most of its value.

Some foreign states, experiencing economic crises, also observed a decline in the national currency. The foreign policy actions carried out by the state force many analysts and experts to give different forecasts about the economic situation of the Federation and about the national currency rate, in particular.

Fluctuations of the ruble may be associated with various domestic and foreign policy actions on the part of the state and its government.

The World Bank gives quite comforting forecasts about the ruble exchange rate and oil prices . According to the most respectable bank, the ruble will stabilize in 2020, and the dollar will cost about 58-60 Russian rubles. As for the cost of oil, it will stabilize at $63 per barrel.

Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , recently expressed her opinion about the country's economy in an interview for a leading TV channel. She did not name the prices of the ruble and oil, but said that the policy pursued by the United States to introduce measures to strengthen the dollar would also support the currencies of some states, including Russia. The fall in the national exchange rate, according to the chairman of the Central Bank, was due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the closure of the possibility of entering the global financial market.

Vnesheconombank believes that in 2020 the price per US dollar will be 55-58 rubles if the policy of OPEC will contribute to raising quotations per barrel of oil to 75-80 dollars.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development insists that financial cash flows directed to our country will be reduced by at least 10 percent. The reason for this opinion was the huge internal loans of the state, among banks, as well as external restrictions on loans. There is a threat of rapid depletion of production capacity as a result of a reduction in investment and simple financial flows.

Do not forget that an industry such as the oil and gas industry will also suffer due to lack of funding, and as a result, the inability to work at full capacity. A change in the supply of raw materials to other countries will undoubtedly affect foreign exchange relations, which will not play in favor of our currency.

One of the Canadian banks Scotiabank , the third largest in the country, gives not the most optimistic forecasts for the Russian national currency. One American dollar will cost 69 rubles by the end of the year.

According to one of the largest investment banks in the world, Goldman Sachs , by 2020 the exchange rate of the national currency will be equal to 60 rubles per dollar. The price of oil will fluctuate, but by the end of next year it will be $70 per barrel.

All world banks agree that the ruble exchange rate is successfully strengthening. Forecasting the rise in oil prices cannot but rejoice. But, to raise the economy as a whole, you will have to stock up patience and baggage of actions, because a quick return to the former situation is not worth waiting for.

7. Frequently asked questions on the exchange rate of the ruble and the dollar 📢

Question number 1. Is it true that the dollar will be canceled in 2020?

The issue of abolishing and limiting the US currency has been troubling the population for some time now. From time to time this issue is raised in some political statements and legislative projects.

At the moment, the government is taking all sorts of actions to reduce the dollar turnover in the country. Sergey Glazyev, who holds the post of adviser to the president, proposed his plan for the economic development of the country. One of the points of the plan is precisely the reduction of the dollar turnover in the country. Glazyev further explained this by saying that the United States is already developing a plan to limit the use of the dollar in the country, and this plan will be a retaliatory strike.

It is clear that it will not be possible to completely exclude the dollar from the country, since this currency is the basis of the world financial system. The policy of the state is primarily aimed at eliminating the dollar currency from small sectors of the economy. Such actions will undoubtedly lead to the growth of the national currency of Russia.

For example, trade in Russia's national resource, as natural gas for rubles, and not for dollars, will force many states to use the ruble, which will force the dollar to drop in relation to the ruble. If large countries decide to sell US Treasury bonds, thereby getting rid of the dollar, the entire US financial system will collapse in an instant.

City Express CEO Alexey Kichatov assesses the chances of abolishing the dollar in the country as minimal. Kichatov claims that this will be a powerful blow to the Russian economy.

In addition, he predicts the difficulties that the Russian people expect, since the savings of the population, to a greater extent, are stored in dollars.

Anton Soroko does not exclude partial the disappearance of the dollar in Russia . According to the analyst, it will take a long time, which will eventually lead to the emergence of two rates of shadow turnover. He cites Venezuela as an example. Trying to fight the outflow of capital, the authorities limited the dollar turnover, as a result, two courses were formed in the country: official and unofficial.

Question number 2. What is the forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week?

In forecasting the course, you should not take into account news events, politics, since these factors are not taken into account when making a forecast for the near future, they are too suspicious and unstable.

Since no significant change and stabilization of the exchange rate is expected in the near future, the ruble exchange rate for the next week will be 65-75 rubles against the dollar, as there are no special reasons for the stabilization of the exchange rate.

We remind you that fresh forecasts and analytics regarding the exchange rate of the dollar, ruble and other instruments for the next day, week, month can be found at link here 📊.

Question number 3. When will the dollar fall (collapse)? Will the dollar fall soon?

The exchange rate of the ruble, as already mentioned, directly depends on investments in the national economy. Moreover, the more investments will be made in Russian capital, assets and economy, the more reliable will be the position of the national currency. And such a process as investing in the Russian economy is connected with the position of the dollar in the country.

The exchange rate of the American currency is also affected import balance and export . These indicators, for good economic growth of the country, must have an appropriate level. The ideal situation is when the export of goods from the country exceeds the import of imported goods, this allows you to enrich the state budget.

Speaking of this balance, it must be remembered that America has the largest public debt . In addition, the US has a large budget deficit, which forms the country's domestic debt. Based on this, the value of the dollar, as a world currency, should fall.
But questions arise why, in such a situation, the dollar remains the most reliable currency in the world.

People trust the dollar because the American currency is highly liquid and the most convertible currency in the world. Why experts' forecasts do not come true from year to year, and why does the dollar remain the most demanded currency in the world? ? What are the consequences of the fall of the dollar?

If the dollar falls anyway, to be replaced by another currency. It is necessary to think about what kind of currency could replace the dollar in terms of convertibility, liquidity and reliability.

Many experts cite Euro to replace dollar. But do not forget that the EU currency is relatively young, which is now also going through difficult years. Many EU countries are experiencing economic crisis . This is first of all Greece, Portugal, Spain and others.

The reason for this stagnation is also America's large debt to these countries. The euro also depends on the dollar, more precisely on its exchange rate.

The dollar remained the most stable currency, even when all countries were going through a period of default and all stocks, real estate and assets were falling in price. This helped the dollar strengthen its position even more. Even in a crisis, when everything was depreciating, the dollar remained the most reliable currency.

Due to its stability, high liquidity and high conversion rate, many countries use as a currency basket exactly the dollar . This diversification occurs in order to save the accumulated funds and their possible increase.

This method is used by such economically strong states as Brazil, China, Russia and many other countries. The use of the dollar as a currency basket contributes to stability and demand for the national currency of America.

The state itself is doing everything possible to keep the exchange rate of its currency at a high level. If rumors are to be believed, the economic crisis was actually caused by one of the "powerful moves" by America, which was staged to maintain the national course.

In 2008, in order to maintain the economic situation in America, it was decided to launch a new dollar cash flow. During this period it was over a trillion dollars printed.

America's actions did not lead to inflation, as the demand for the dollar did not decrease. As long as there is demand for the national American currency, the dollar will not fall.

The fall of the dollar is possible only in such cases as:

1. the sale by major countries of the world of treasury bonds of the American currency and the rejection of the dollar as a currency;
2. if countries stop trading with the dollar, the American financial system will collapse. Russia is actively pursuing this method by selling its goods for rubles. Previously, this was simply unthinkable. It was necessary to sell oil for dollars, and then pay off with the same currency with another country for the necessary assets or goods.

If each country, when trading and buying, uses its own national currency, and not the dollar, then the exchange rate of the latter will go down. Countries will simply stop using the American currency with today's activity, it will become less in demand.

Question number 4. Will the dollar rise in 2020?

We have already described in detail the possible forecasts for the dollar. The dollar can both rise and fall. This also includes dependence on the decision of the Fed. Analysts and experts predict that the Fed plans to raise interest rates in the near future, which could negatively affect the ruble exchange rate.

8. What will happen to the ruble in the near future 2020: latest news + our fundamental and technical analysis of the market 💎

Periodically, we will publish our forecasts and our visions for the ruble and dollar exchange rate, analyzing the market, conducting our own, mainly technical analyses.

* Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for the near future

From the latest technical analysis, it follows that the probability of the dollar falling below 55 and 50 rubles is minimal, as well as its growth above 85 rubles. In any case, you should conduct analytics and make forecasts on your own. No one knows the exact forecasts!!!

If you want to start trading on the Forex market on your own, we recommend using the services this forex broker.

9. Conclusion + related video 🎥

Analyzing all the forecasts of world famous banks and analytical experts, one can hope for a speedy stabilization of Russia's national course. You just need to stock up on a certain baggage of patience, the strengthening of the ruble will soon occur.

But despite such bright prospects, it should be understood that Russia today does not have the best economic situation, which can be affected by various actions, and not only internal , but also external political factors taken by the policies of other states.

A very precarious situation, the national budget deficit and external sanctions haunt the people of Russia. According to official statistics, in the past two years Russia has spent one hundred fifty billion gold and foreign exchange reserves. Spending was stopped, but if oil prices continue to decline, Russia will face total budget deficit.

After all, the country's income will drop significantly, and to maintain a functioning level of the economy of such a huge state, considerable funds are required. The opinions of experts and leading banks, of course, are promising, but you should not rely only on their forecast.

All Russians want to believe in the stabilization of the national currency. Everyone is already tired of thinking about the dollar and waiting for an improvement in the level of wages and pensions.

It is necessary to increase the purchasing power of the population, raise the level of the economy and the level of the gross domestic product.

But you need to look at the current situation through the prism of reality and not just wait for improvements, but contribute to them, buying goods national production and making contributions to national banks.

We hope that you now understand that the answer to the questions - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future?", "What will happen to the ruble?" Everyone is looking for himself, making his own forecasts and relying on his own principles.

If you have questions and suggestions, we are ready to discuss them in the comments to the article.

In conclusion, we suggest watching an interesting video

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The European currency is going through a crisis related to the economic and political situation in the EU. Experts give their forecast for the euro for 2019 against the US dollar and the Russian ruble.

What will happen to the euro and dollar rates: forecasts for 2019, chart

According to Reuters, economic growth in the euro area will slow down next year and will not exceed 1.5%. This is a more prominent figure than expected last quarter, but still not high enough due to uncertainty in global trade and due to internal factors affecting large EU economies. ECB officials have repeatedly stressed that the prospect of raising interest rates is quite high, but the average inflation rate is still around 1%, well below the target.

EUR/USD exchange rate chart in 2019

The EU's central bank does not decide on the direction of monetary policy without this indicator, so without a continued increase in core inflation, it would have no reason to consider more restrictive monetary policy.

The ECB's goal for 2019 is to keep price growth close to its inflation target, so it is likely that rate hikes will not begin until 2020 at the earliest. Given that the US Federal Reserve and the European Bank are likely to continue the monetary policy outlined back in 2018, the EUR/USD rate will remain at 1.15.

Economic and political reasons for the change in the value of the euro in rubles in 2019

In December last year, the Russian Central Bank raised its key rate to 7.75% in response to the US Federal Reserve's rate hike to 2.5%. The goal is to target inflation, which will be around 4% by the end of the year. Taking into account the fact that inflation rose by 0.9% in just 3 weeks, analysts believe that the final figure will exceed 5%.

EUR to RUB exchange rate chart for 2019

Consumer inflation in the euro area fell at the end of 2018 and after the New Year due to sharp declines in energy and food prices. Headline inflation averaged 1.7%, compared to 1.5% in 2017, and also exceeded the monthly average. It is assumed that oil prices this year and next will not be lower than last year, and inflation in the euro area will be 1.4%.

Inflation in the EU, data for 2018

This year, the euro exchange rate against the ruble will react, first of all, to geopolitical factors, for example, to US sanctions against Russia, which are also supported by the EU. In addition, the value of the ruble may be negatively affected by the price of oil, which, despite the imposed production restrictions, still remains unstable.

Given the need for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to purchase foreign currency for the needs of the Ministry of Finance, further weakening of the ruble against the European currency is expected with a trading range on the foreign exchange market of 77-80 rubles per euro.

How the euro will change: a positive scenario for the ruble

It is difficult to give long-term forecasts for the value of the euro and its impact on the Russian ruble due to the tense political and economic relations between Russia, the EU and the US.

Opinions of analysts of the Central Bank

According to experts from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, the exchange rate of the European currency in 2019 will remain rather unstable, as was observed in 2017-2018. This year, the euro against the ruble may rise to 85-90 rubles. per unit, subject to the preservation of the current political situation. In general, economic forecasts are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and downside risk cannot be ruled out. Trade tensions, which have become global in recent times, have eased to some extent.

Forecasts of experts of the Ministry of Economic Development

Specialists from the Ministry of Economic Development believe that the value of the euro will remain virtually unchanged until the end of this year. This conclusion follows from the investment study of the European Commission, according to which the volume of investment in production in the euro area will remain at the level of 4.5% this year and will grow to 5.0% in 2020.

Projected euro exchange rate according to Sberbank

According to the forecast of Sberbank specialists, the euro exchange rate in Russia will slightly decrease and reach 71 rubles per unit of currency. This conclusion is drawn from the annual EU economic development report, which indicates that the level of consumption in the euro area fell from 0.2 in the previous quarter to 0.1%. This indicates a slowdown in job creation and an increase in private savings. That is, the Europeans began to spend less, which negatively affects the economic development of the EU and the growth in the value of the European currency.

Will the euro rise in price: a negative scenario for the ruble

The forecasts of independent experts are not as positive as those discussed above from domestic financiers. Given the pressure of economic sanctions on Russia and the fall in oil prices, foreign experts do not reject the option of increasing the value of the euro to 100 rubles per unit. But not everyone is of this opinion.

“An increase in VAT by 2% and an increase in excises on gasoline will give impetus to a continued rise in inflation, which will require the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to revise the key interest rate. Ultimately, this will help stabilize the ruble against the dollar and the euro.”

Konstantin Kochergin, head of the department at Vostochny Bank, in an interview with Argumenty i Fakty

“Increasing the role of the private sector will certainly be very beneficial for Russia: it will increase the efficiency of the economy and create prerequisites for growth. However, to achieve this increase in the share of the private sector is not enough: it is also necessary to improve the conditions in which it operates. This will help attract investors from the EU countries to areas of the Russian economy that are not subject to sanctions, and strengthen the ruble.”

Head of the analytical department of Grand Capital Sergey Kozlovsky in an interview with RBC +

“The current instability of the ruble may cause serious financial shocks to the Russian economy in the future. It is likely that in the fall of 2019, the price may rise to 80, and then to 85-90 rubles per euro.

Financial and stock analyst Stepan Demura in an interview with RBC.

In what currency is it safer to keep savings in 2019: ruble, euro, dollar

The most reliable currency in 2019 will remain the US dollar. About 63% of global reserves are held in these units, and every second trade in the world is also made in US dollars. In addition, it is worth noting that experts' forecasts for $ are very optimistic, which cannot be said about the European currency, which is experiencing sharp jumps due to Britain's exit from the EU and the internal crisis in the economy.

Even according to the most optimistic forecasts, the value of the ruble will remain unchanged against the euro, but is more likely to be in the region of 80-85 rubles. for a unit. This means that keeping savings in rubles is as risky as investing in Russian currency.

Write in the comments your forecast for the value of the ruble against the dollar and the euro for 2019.