home » Mortgage » Forecast of the growth or fall of the dollar. When will the dollar collapse? Other opinions about the situation

Forecast of the growth or fall of the dollar. When will the dollar collapse? Other opinions about the situation

MOSCOW, Jan 15 - PRIME, Anna Podlinova. The dollar at the beginning of the week continued to fall against major currencies, reaching the lowest levels over the past three years. In 2017, the dollar lost an average of 6% against other currencies, say analysts polled by Prime. The decline in the dollar is primarily due to the rise in price, which broke through the mark of $70 per barrel last week and continues to stay near this level.

However, experts clarify, the fall of the dollar does not mean that the US economy is heading for a recession: at this stage, the current price of the currency is quite comfortable for American producers. In addition, the Fed is closely monitoring the dollar and is quite capable of making a statement that will support the national currency. In addition, according to analysts' forecasts, by the end of the year the "American" will still rise from the depths and settle at the level of 60 rubles, unless, of course, there are additional factors for even greater growth.

Reasons for the fall

First of all, the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro is associated with an increase in oil prices to $70 per barrel, says Viktor Veselov, chief analyst at Globex Bank. "This caused an influx of liquidity into the Russian market due to its commodity component. Thus, foreign investors are in a hurry to capitalize while oil prices are high," he explains, adding that the ruble will continue to strengthen until the end of January. At the same time, according to the analyst's forecasts, the dollar will cost 55 rubles in the first quarter.

This will happen, firstly, due to the tax period, and secondly, due to high oil prices. However, new US sanctions against the Russian Federation are expected to be introduced in early February, which may temporarily provoke an outflow of foreign liquidity from the Russian market, Veselov specifies. At the same time, foreign investors will return to Russia because of the high real rate above 5%, he says.

The Russian currency is trading in sync with other currencies of developing countries, notes Natalia Shilova, director of the Center for Macroeconomic Forecasting at Binbank. Since January 12, the Mexican peso has strengthened against the dollar by 0.8%, the Russian ruble - by 0.5%, the Chinese yuan, the Malaysian ringgit, the Polish zloty - by 0.3-0.5%. "This dynamic is mainly due to the increased expectations of investors from the global economy in 2018, with regard to both the demand for commodities and the demand for more risky and profitable assets," explains Shilova.

The real effective ruble exchange rate decreased by 0.9% in 2017

She also believes that the ruble will remain strong in January-February, thanks to relatively stable oil prices and a seasonal expansion of the trade surplus.

A more noticeable weakening of the dollar against all currencies of emerging markets is also due to the fact that the steps that the Fed will take have already been taken into account by the market, says Denis Davydov, chief analyst at Nordea Bank. At the same time, the potential for tightening policy from the ECB and some signals from the Bank of Japan to tighten stimulus measures make these currencies more attractive. "Therefore, the market is still focused on getting more profit from investments in the euro and yen than from investments in the dollar," he says.

This does not mean that the US economy is heading into recession. "It's just that the capital market does not see the risks that it saw at the beginning of last year, and takes a more active position in other currencies and assets other than the dollar," Davydov says. This year, the dollar will moderately decline against the euro, but the potential for its further weakening does not look so deep, the analyst notes. A complete repetition of the situation in 2017, when the dollar lost more than 10% against the euro, is not expected, the movement in the pair could be about 5%, he clarifies.

For the ruble

Nordea Bank's baseline forecast assumes 61 rubles per dollar at the end of 2018. "Despite the fact that the attractiveness of the ruble will remain, the narrowing of the differential between the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Fed will make the carry story less attractive," Davydov explains. If the strengthening of the ruble happens, it will not be as bright as in the past year. Also, the activity of market participants will cool inflation growth in the second half of the year, he says.

The growth of the ruble is facilitated by the payment of a large amount of insurance payments due today, adds Alexei Devyatov, chief economist at Uralsib. The strengthening of the euro continues to play against the US currency, due to the possible resumption of discussions about a faster curtailment of measures to support the economies of the euro area countries by the ECB, as well as successful negotiations on the creation of a ruling coalition in Germany, he notes. The average dollar exchange rate this year will be 58 rubles, the expert predicts.

Shilova fully agrees with him, who also expects the dollar at 58 rubles on average for the year. In her opinion, the ruble will remain stable thanks to the growth of exports due to the high price of oil. At the same time, the introduction of additional sanctions will limit the inflow of foreign investment, she notes. “However, taking into account the fact that in recent years it was already insignificant, in the conditions of a stable commodity market in 2018, this factor will be insignificant,” says Shilova.

Expectations for Brent

The shortage of oil supply on the world market will push oil prices up in the first quarter of this year, Veselov believes. However, due to the fact that the exit strategy of countries from, in the future, this will create a risk of a decrease in the price of "black gold". According to Globex forecasts, the average annual oil price will be about $68 per barrel.

In Binbank, on average for the year, they expect oil prices to stabilize near the $60 mark, Shilova says, noting that after the first quarter, a correction is most likely. According to Davydov from Nordea Bank, in the base scenario, the average annual price of Brent will be $63, and by the end of 2018 it will be at the level of $65.

Uralsib Senior Analyst Aleksey Kokin expects oil prices to drop to around $65 by the end of January, driven by increased US drilling and production and a lower assessment of the risk of a return of US sanctions against Iran. The average annual price for Brent, according to Uralsib's forecast, will be $57 per barrel.

Against the ruble

The dynamics of the ruble quotes in the coming days will depend on oil prices, which may decline moderately, Devyatov said, noting that an increase in the operations of the Ministry of Finance to buy foreign currency on the market could play against the ruble. In the medium term, we should expect a moderate depreciation of the national currency compared to current quotes due to a correction in oil prices and a gradual decline in non-residents' interest in ruble assets as a result of a further reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank and an increase in the FRS rate, the economist believes.

The purchases of foreign currency by the RF Ministry of Finance, the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian Federation, and the reduction of the key rate will play against the ruble, Veselov agrees. “These factors will help the dollar strengthen against the ruble,” he says, predicting the ruble at around 59-60 per dollar by the end of 2018.

In general, Davydova notes, at the moment the dollar exchange rate is quite comfortable for the American economy. "Given the US debt, it's a pretty good story. It also improves the competitiveness of US manufacturers," he says. In the future, it is unlikely that the American regulator will allow the dollar to weaken uncontrollably, Davydov concludes.

Even true experts cannot make an accurate dollar forecast in 2017. But this question is of interest not only to officials, but first of all to ordinary citizens, because the prices for products depend on this currency. What determines the dollar will fall or rise?

Forecast for optimists

Today, the government (Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Finance, Central Bank) believes that in 2017 one can count on a rate of 53 rubles per dollar.

Thanks to the rise in oil prices, even this year we can expect an increase in the ruble exchange rate by 10-11%. In 2017, you can count on an additional increase of 3-4%.

Another optimistic option is if oil does not fall below $50 per barrel. Then one can expect stability at the level of up to 60 rubles per dollar from the domestic currency.

But no one can guarantee how countries that are not members of the cartel, but that produce oil, will behave. In particular, we are talking about Iraq, especially if all sanctions are lifted. Then the domestic currency will fall.

More realistic scenario

The established trend: the ruble is falling and prices are rising, may continue in 2017. And this option is more expected, since the collapse of the oil market is not new at all.

Attempts to artificially raise the cost of a barrel work, but have a short-term effect. In 2015 and 2016, there have already been several surges and sharp drops in prices, and, accordingly, fluctuations in exchange rates.

Maybe this video will be useful:

Despite the government's expectations, such an increase in oil should not be expected. Initially, it was planned to include $35 per barrel in the draft budget. In general, in 2017, the average cost per barrel will fluctuate around $40. Such forecasts will affect GDP and inflation. It would be pointless to expect growth.

At such prices, you will have to pay about 70-75 rubles for foreign currency. This will lead to another rise in prices, so citizens should prepare in advance and possibly diversify their savings.

Factors for making a forecast

In order to understand why the dollar is growing, to assess the future position of one of the key indicators of the economy, it is necessary to study the factors influencing fluctuations.

1 - Oil price

It is no longer a secret to anyone that the cost of a barrel is directly dependent on the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar. This is due to the fact that 80% of the budget is oil and gas, which our country is rich in. The falling oil price leads to a decrease in the volume of currency on the market and weakens the ruble.

Read more:

Even this year (November 30) it was decided to reduce production and enter the oil market. The news about this allowed to increase the cost by 10%. Although this did not greatly affect the current quotes: oil is growing, the dollar is not falling.

Forecasts for 2017 vary. The External Economic Bank estimates that a barrel will cost $60. The World Bank is of the same opinion, making forecasts ($63 per barrel).

An increase in the cost of oil is beneficial not only to Russia, but also to other producing countries that form their budget at the expense of it. In this case, the domestic currency will strengthen at the level of 58 rubles per dollar. GoldmanSachs is considering a scenario where the cost of oil will be at the level of 40-50 dollars per barrel.

2 - Sanctions

It is not worth hoping for a speedy resolution of the conflict. Although behind the scenes they are already openly saying that these measures harm primarily the countries that have imposed sanctions. The end of military conflicts in Ukraine and Syria in 2017 should not be expected, which negatively affects our economy.

In the event of successful negotiations and the lifting of bans, GDP growth and the strengthening of the national currency are expected.

3 - Decisions of the Central Bank

In the first wave of the crisis, in order to stabilize the ruble, the refinancing rate was sharply increased (it amounted to 17%). As the economy recovered, there was a decline. Now it is equal to 10%. And in the near future, according to the assurances of the head of the Central Bank, no changes are planned. But in the event of a new wave of crisis rates may be revised.

4 -Inflation and GDP

The inflation rate in recent years is quite high, which does not contribute to the depreciation of the dollar against the ruble. For 2017, if the inflation rate does not exceed 4%, then we can expect the strengthening of the domestic currency. Of course, this is only possible with GDP growth.

There is a universal currency - precious metals. Gold has been rising for a long time, of course, there have been periods of decline, but in the long run, such investments are among the most reliable.

Why are forecasts so difficult? It's just that too many factors are involved in determining the course, which cannot be predicted with a guarantee.

(10 ratings, on average: 4,60 out of 5)

Well, it's time to write fresh ruble exchange rate forecast for 2018. In this article, I will traditionally review the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the past year, the main factors affecting the value of the Russian currency, how they have changed and may change further, in order to draw conclusions about What will be the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018. I think that it should be interesting to all residents of the Russian Federation.

As always, I want to make a reservation right away: in the article I will cite various facts, on the basis of which I will draw my own conclusions. You have the right to agree with them or disagree, but you must make your financial decisions based on your own (and not mine or someone else's) conclusions, and independently, fully bear responsibility for them.

So, before giving a forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia in 2018, it is necessary to consider what its dynamics was in the past year.

Dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017.

In 2017, nothing interesting happened to the ruble. In comparison with previous years, its rate looked quite stable, and even strengthened a little during the year.

Here is a chart showing the dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in 2017:

As you can see for yourself, there was no trend in the ruble in 2017, the rate moved within the channel that I marked on the chart. The year began from the upper border of the channel, and ended closer to the lower one, thus, at the end of the year, the ruble exchange rate slightly strengthened: from about 61 to 57 rubles per dollar, that is, by 6.5%.

It can be stated that in 2017 the ruble exchange rate stabilized and fluctuated within the 56-61 channel. But will this stability continue in 2018? Let's analyze.

Forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018: fundamental analysis.

First of all, let's look at the fundamental factors that affect the ruble exchange rate and how they may change in 2018.

Factor 1. Oil prices. The dependence of the ruble on oil prices is becoming less and less. So, for example, in 2017, oil prices were in a trend, but the ruble exchange rate was not. Here is a chart of Brent oil prices for the same period.

At the beginning of 2017, oil prices were falling, and the ruble was strengthening, although it should have been falling logically. Then oil took a fairly strong uptrend, and the ruble exchange rate fluctuated back and forth, as a result, it practically did not change.

Please note: in June 2017, with an oil price of about $44 per barrel, the ruble exchange rate was about 57 rubles per dollar. In December 2017, with an oil price of about 67 dollars per barrel, the ruble exchange rate is again about 57 rubles per dollar. Oil for this period has risen in price by 1.5 times, and the ruble exchange rate has not changed!

What does it say? On the one hand, the dependence between the ruble exchange rate and the price of oil is declining. On the other hand, we all perfectly understand that the ruble continues to be a commodity currency, and if the ruble exchange rate did not change with the growth of oil by 1.5 times, this means that in the absence of such growth, it would fall.

Thus, further strengthening of oil will not cause a strong strengthening of the ruble, but its fall in price may cause a weakening of the Russian currency.

What will happen to oil in 2018?

The supply of oil in the market still exceeds the demand for it, according to forecasts, this trend will continue;
The OPEC agreement on limiting production may not be extended (analysts see ambiguity in the text, moreover, it is unprofitable for Libya to support it - 50% of the country's GDP is oil revenues);
US shale oil production will increase due to high oil prices;
Development of new conventional oil fields in Alaska is expected.

Therefore, a strong rise in oil prices should not be expected, but a fall from current levels is more likely. With a fall in oil prices, the ruble is likely to weaken as well.

Factor 2. Sanctions. Sanctions, as well as “anti-sanctions”, also have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, although in the last year their influence was not as strong as before. We see that no one is going to lift sanctions, moreover, they are constantly being strengthened, new ones are being introduced.

All this has a negative impact on the Russian economy (I think that there is no one left who believes that “sanctions are only for our benefit”), and indirectly on the exchange rate of the ruble as a national currency. Because the volume of export-import operations is decreasing, the inflow of investments (on the contrary, there is an outflow), GDP, inflation is growing.

The lifting of sanctions and anti-sanctions, especially the complete one, would contribute to a rather significant strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, since it would immediately create serious prerequisites for economic growth. Further expansion of sanctions will continue to put pressure on the economy and the national currency, and contribute to further devaluation of the ruble.

The next negative event in this direction may be a ban on foreign investors from acquiring Russian Eurobonds, OFZ and, which is planned to be imposed in February 2018.

Only after the appearance of this news, a serious outflow of foreign capital from the Russian stock market followed - investors withdrew hundreds of millions of dollars in December.

Therefore, the imposition of such sanctions can have a rather serious indirect impact on the ruble exchange rate and will contribute to its depreciation. Judge for yourself, now about 1/3 of the government bonds of the Russian Federation are in the hands of non-residents - such a share of the capital can be lost only directly due to the introduction of the ban. This will indirectly affect the withdrawal of non-residents' capital from other Russian assets, in particular, shares. The fall of stock market indices in December is a direct confirmation of this.

In addition, the gradual decline in the yield of Russian ruble government bonds leads to the fact that even without a ban they become unprofitable for foreign investors (the ratio ceases to be attractive).

All this indicates the continued outflow of foreign capital from the Russian Federation, which will contribute to the growth of the currency deficit and, as a result, the weakening of the ruble.

Factor 3. Central bank policy. When giving a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018, one should definitely consider the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as the main currency regulator in the country. Consider his main instruments of currency regulation, and how he applies them.

Discount rate. During 2017, the Central Bank lowered it 6 times, and in general lowered it by 25% - from 10% to 7.75%. The decrease step is small: 0.5-0.25 points, so this did not lead to significant currency fluctuations in the market.

Reducing the discount rate is a good trend for the economy, stimulating economic growth. However, economic growth, in turn, stimulates inflation, which means that foreign currency, like any other commodity, can grow in price, and the value of the national currency, respectively, can decrease.

In 2018, the discount rate may continue to decline, even weaker than in 2017. In my opinion, this factor will not have any significant impact on the ruble exchange rate.

foreign exchange interventions. Here is more interesting. By the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, through the Central Bank, was increasingly actively buying foreign currency on the Moscow Exchange. So, for example, in September and October it was bought for 76 billion rubles each month, in November - for 123 billion rubles, and in December - as much as 204 billion rubles. While in the first months of the year such purchases were carried out for only 3-6 billion rubles per month.

Such an increased demand for the currency should have caused an increase in its value, and, consequently, a slight depreciation of the ruble, but this did not happen, on the contrary, in the last months of 2017, the ruble strengthened.

Moreover, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and representatives of other state financial institutions have repeatedly carried out the so-called. “verbal interventions”, declaring that by the end of the year the dollar exchange rate will definitely grow, which pushed the population and institutional investors to buy up the currency. However, again, the growth of the dollar and other currencies did not happen, despite the increase in demand, the effect was the opposite.

This situation once again confirms that the forecasts of the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and other government agencies have the opposite effect. For example, when in 2014-2015 senior officials repeatedly spoke about the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, it continued to fall. Now, when they actively claimed that they would fall, on the contrary, it strengthened a little.

All this suggests that the forecasts of the ruble exchange rate they voice have little in common with the real forecasts, which, I suspect, they also calculate.

Factor 4. Presidential elections. In the forecast of the dollar in Russia for 2018, one cannot ignore the presidential election, which will be held in March. In recent years, the economic situation in the country has deteriorated significantly. It is logical that on the eve of the elections, the incumbent president needs to demonstrate some improvement in the situation, some positive dynamics, which will add weight and voter support to him.

One of the factors of such an improvement, which is always well received by the population, is the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and other currencies. “Here you are, the ruble is strengthening, which means it is getting better, we are pursuing the right policy” - this message can be seen among others.

I believe that before the elections, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, if necessary, will in every possible way restrain the fall of the ruble and even, on the contrary, try to strengthen it, for example, by the same interventions. And for some time after the elections, too, so that there was no clear “border” of the trend change, coinciding with the elections. But then, somewhere from the middle of summer, autumn, this containment will most likely not happen, since there will be practically no resources left for this.

Factor 5. Economic indicators. The final macroeconomic indicators have not yet been published, but according to preliminary data, it is clear that the Russian economy is in a state of stagnation. GDP growth is less than planned, around 2% per year. In the absence of global economic reforms, one should not expect any improvements in 2018; I know nothing about plans for such reforms.

Inflation will range from 2.5 to 3%, however, its decline is associated, rather, not with the stabilization of the economy, but with a complete drop in the purchasing power of the population (in 2017 it is reduced by 1-2% compared to 2016, and all previous years fell even more). In 2018, the Central Bank itself predicts a slight increase in inflation compared to 2017.

Separately, I would like to note the closure of the reserve fund and the reduction at the end of the year from 71.87 to 65.15 billion dollars. This suggests that financial reserves are increasingly depleted, and if necessary, there will soon be nothing to use.

Personally, I do not see and do not assume any significant positive changes in the economy that could positively affect the ruble exchange rate, and in comparison with the above factors, I consider this one not so significant.

Forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018: technical analysis.

Now that we have looked at the main global factors that will affect the ruble exchange rate in 2018, let's conduct a technical analysis to determine when and how quotes can move.

Attention to the chart:

In the last year, the ruble exchange rate was clamped in, symbolizing the figure of uncertainty. On the graph, it is indicated by blue lines. If the figure “works”, it means at what moment a breakdown will occur, and the course will leave the triangle in one of the directions, at least by the amount of the initial height of the triangle.

In my opinion, breaking the triangle down, which would mean the strengthening of the ruble somewhere up to 51 rubles per dollar, is unlikely, there are too many negative fundamental factors. Therefore, such a breakout is more likely to occur upwards after the rate fluctuates inside the triangle for some time.

At the top, I marked with blue lines the most significant nearest ones, on which, most likely, the rate will be delayed - these are 62, 63.5, 65, 66.5. If the level of 66.5 is broken, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble can rise much more significantly - the next significant levels are from 75 and above.

Forecast of the dollar exchange rate in Russia for 2018: conclusions.

Summing up the results of the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2018, I can draw the following conclusions:

In general, fundamental factors suggest that the ruble will fall.
There is a serious factor that is currently holding back this fall - this is a strong rise in oil prices.
As long as oil prices continue to rise and remain high, the ruble exchange rate will change little, and a strong appreciation is unlikely.
If the oil trend changes to fall, the ruble exchange rate will begin to fall.
The greatest dynamics of the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and other currencies can be expected from the second half of 2018, in the first half it will most likely be weak.
The most realistic scenario is the fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate throughout the year in the range of 60-70 with a tendency to rise in price.
With a significant increase in some negative factors, the dollar exchange rate may rise to higher levels, and vice versa, if the fundamental situation improves, the ruble exchange rate may fall more weakly, or continue to fluctuate in the current range until the end of the year.

Such a forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018 turned out for me. As always, I am ready for a constructive dialogue in the comments. Also, you can always study other forecasts of experts and analysts, both well-known and not so well-known. Most importantly, remember that you alone are responsible for your financial decisions.

Join the number of regular visitors to the site and improve your financial literacy to better understand the economic processes and manage your personal finances more effectively. Until we meet again on the pages of the site!

45 681 views

Comments on the entry: 69

Hello again! I don’t even know where to start) I only read the beginning of the article, I really liked your warning about what is dangerous
listen to other people's opinions when it comes to finances), I remember telling you about this last year that people should be warned. I don’t think you should write anything about last year, you can see for yourself who was right and who was wrong. The dollar has not flown anywhere, oil is under 70, that is, exactly as I wrote a year ago.
I won’t write anything about the article itself, I haven’t read it yet, but I think I’ll write it off later.

Hello, you are right here). In my opinion, you are exclusively engaged in tracking this topic, but by the way, this is your business. Of course, you will write back later, because only for this you come here, but I immediately warn you traditionally: the slightest manifestation of disrespect, and your comment will not be. So read it very well before sending 🙂
Last year, I did not write that the dollar would "fly away somewhere." I will quote: “the forecast of the ruble exchange rate - 2017 at the moment can be described in one word: “uncertainty”. Conclusions: 1. Uncertainty. 2. Dollar up rather than down.” And the word “uncertainty” was repeated many times in the article. Actually, this is what happened - nothing happened, no special movements up or down. Uncertainty as it was, and remained at the end of the year.

Again, I see the comment was deleted, but oh well, it was addressed specifically to you, others do not have to read it.

Let's go for oil)
The fact that oil has risen in price 1.5 times as you write, and the ruble exchange rate has remained at the same level, in no case can mean what you wrote, it only says one thing - buying up excess currency, for example: the Ministry of Finance will buy currency in the domestic market by 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018. Not weak, right? I kind of wrote last year that they would keep the course by any means, since further strengthening of the ruble would hit competitiveness hard
our manufacturers in the global market.
Regarding the supply and demand of oil. There is still an oversupply, but it is not at all significant, it is worth looking at how much it has decreased over the year, the picture immediately changes. If this continues, then in 3-5 years we will face not an overabundance, but a deficit. Consumption is growing at a rapid pace around the world, for example: Chinese oil imports totaled 34 million metric tons in December. As a result, 2017 imports rose by 10.1% to a record 420 million metric tons + a major drawdown in US inventories.
As for OPEC, I didn’t understand at all what kind of extension we are talking about? As far as I know, it has been extended until the end of 2018.
Why did you decide that US production will increase enough to put serious pressure on world prices? The number of drilling rigs has recently decreased, and it is too early to talk about increasing production.
And what about Alaska? How this can affect oil this year I do not understand at all. Do you even know how long mining takes?

Personally, I think that oil will continue to grow this year, it is difficult to say to what price it will rise, but there can be no talk of a fall.

Hello, I am writing from the phone, there may be blots. Michael, state your version for 2018. And more specifics. Such things as you write must be confirmed by facts. Leave the emotions to the women. Sincerely.

Or maybe you yourself write something on the topic first, before demanding it from others? What specifics are we talking about? I have only written about oil so far, and I explained my position in sufficient detail and detailed, even more detailed than it is written in the article. I don't owe you anything, so be content with what I write. I didn’t understand about emotions at all, what emotions should I leave to women?

About emotions it is not necessary to nod towards women. You men have even worse emotions.

Sanctions.
The only thing I agree with is that the sanctions have practically no pressure on the exchange rate.

You write that the tightening of sanctions will negatively affect trade? In 2017, there were also repeated tightening of sanctions, but foreign trade turnover increased by $ 95 billion compared to 2016, while there are no data for the entire year, I can only compare to November.

Why write about the pitiful millions that were withdrawn from the stock market, I don’t understand at all, last year they brought it in, they took it out, they invest again next year, all the more so to write that this is a serious outflow. These are such insignificant sums that it is even difficult to call them - “A drop in the ocean”, it is much less. And based on this, you decided that there is an outflow of investments from the country? I just have no words.

GDP. What's wrong with GDP? It grew by almost 2% and no sanctions could prevent growth.

Rising inflation. I didn't even think about such a low inflation rate. Here, too, the sanctions did not exert any pressure.

Everything happened exactly as I wrote a year ago)

Conclusion: the sanctions, both last year and this year, will not be able to put serious pressure on the exchange rate.

Central Bank policy.
Discount rate. Let's start with the fact that it is correct to write - the key rate, not the discount rate) Of all that has been written, only that the reduction in the key rate is positive for the ruble is true. Why did you decide that economic growth will stimulate the growth of inflation and, moreover, the growth of the currency? It largely depends on what this economic growth will be based on, on the contrary, it can strengthen the ruble if this growth is due to exports, and our exports grew more than imports last year.
foreign exchange interventions. It's... I just don't have the words. What is the increased demand for the currency, what are you talking about? They're buying up the surplus! And by the end of the year, purchases increased due to rising oil prices, as there were a lot of surpluses! They buy it for only one reason - to keep the course, to prevent the ruble from strengthening. If they didn’t do this, Konstantin would have been left without “pants”, since the exchange rate would have been 52-54) But such an exchange rate is not beneficial for our economy, that’s why they buy it. And as I wrote above, the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency on the domestic market for 257.1 billion rubles in January 2018, i.e. more than $4 billion. This is a serious amount for 1 month and everything is surplus! What kind of currency deficit can we talk about in this situation?
Regarding the “forecasts” of the Ministry of Finance, there is nothing surprising) Last year I also remember writing that this scam is for people to buy up foreign currency.

Spelling errors, Michael, interfere with the understanding of your thoughts.

Presidential elections.
There is nothing special to add here, of course they will try to make people feel the improvement, and whether it really is, or not, and at the expense of what or whom it was done, this is a separate issue.

Economic indicators.
GDP, inflation - there are numbers, there is nothing special to add. The reserve fund was not closed, but merged with the National Welfare Fund, these are completely different things. The Reserve Fund currently has a balance of 1 trillion, which should be transferred to the NWF.
Just as before, I do not see any critical changes in the NWF that would give prerequisites for its depletion.

Well, now actually my forecast) The course will be in the range of 55-65, of course, it is unlikely that it is higher than 63, but I leave a small margin)
I will sign a little, although much has already been written above, I will repeat everything exactly.

1. Oil prices. Oil will rise in price, of course, rollbacks are possible throughout the year, but one way or another, it will grow, you can read more about it above. Therefore, the inflow of currency will grow along with oil, thereby creating an overabundance, which by itself will work to strengthen the ruble.

2. Volumes of foreign trade. Overall indicators for the year have not yet been published, but we can say with confidence that the volumes have grown by about 25% per year, I can tell you this is just a gigantic growth, moreover, exports are growing more than imports. Accordingly, the balance increases, and hence the surplus of the currency. Perhaps this year we will not see such an increase, but there will be no fall, all the more. Any increase in volumes, even if not very significant, will be positive for the ruble.

3. Economic indicators are slowly growing, this year the growth will be approximately the same, so we should not expect a serious weakening of the ruble.

While everything indicates that it will be very difficult for the dollar to rise above 60, a number of changes may occur during the year that will help it go beyond this mark, or may not happen. To be honest, the chance to break through 55 seems more real to me than to break through 65)

I want to warn everyone that this is all my personal opinion and reasoning, you should not invest money based only on my forecast, I just provided the analytics and my conclusions. Although my forecasts were very accurate for 2 years in a row and fully reflected the picture of what was happening after, this does not mean that I cannot be wrong. You risk your money and you need to think with your head!

There will be questions, write)

Question: why, with all the positive or neutral factors that you have described, do you predict a depreciation of the ruble?

Konstantin, I am talking about what I spoke about last year - do not expect a strong weakening of the ruble. If 5-10% is a reduction in price for you, which, in principle, can be equal to inflation, then let there be a reduction in price)

Michael, this is great. Here you write all the time “and I said…”, “isn’t that what I told you…”, “but I turned out to be right…”. And under the previous article on this topic, you wrote the same thing about an article two years ago. But since you like to repeat it so much, then your own words in the first commentary on the forecast for 2017: “The dollar exchange rate at the end of 2017 is no more than 70.”. Yes, you are really right!!! He is no more than 70! And you can also write “no more than 100” or “above 40”. And in the next comment, you wrote “For the perfect balance, we need a rate of 65 now, with a gradual increase in the 70 region.” The course, which “we need for the perfect balance”, as you can see, did not work out, and during the year there was not even one. Even though you said... And the most interesting thing is that you and I predicted identically in the direction of movement. I wrote that it will most likely grow weakly, and you, too, even you set higher figures - so I brought them. Why don’t you write now “Did I say that it will be less than 70, and is it less than 70?”)

Write your numbers for 2018, describe the behavior of the ruble exchange rate so that it does not coincide with my description (in 2017 it did, oddly enough!), and so that in 2019 you also have something to write about “and I said …”. Because these are the main keywords in everything you write 🙂

Already written at the same time, excellent. That's exactly what I wanted to hear.

Last year, you just distracted me a little from the topic. Why don't you like my prediction? I let people know that there would be no strong growth of the dollar! Isn't that what everyone hoped for who bought at 70? As a result, there is no growth. Therefore, for the minimum threshold, I did not even bother. In principle, I didn’t have a goal to designate it. For oil, for example, my forecast was generally perfect, I wrote that it would rise in price to 70, the price of oil is now 69.8, I think there’s nowhere to be more precise.
All my forecasts were in a rather narrow range from the values at that time, if we consider that this forecast for the whole year was the most accurate of all that was written there, including yours. Therefore, your claims are unfounded.
Your forecast was generally uncertain and most likely upwards, I’m generally silent on oil, you wrote that the price would fall) As for the balance, we still need a 60+ rate, but due to serious currency surpluses, they are simply not able to do this .I wrote that they would try to weaken the ruble, wasn't that what they did all year long, buying up excess foreign currency?

I wrote about your first two comments. First (!). In them, I certainly did not “distract” you from the topic :-). Perhaps all your forecasts were somewhere in a narrow range, but here they were for the dollar (namely, this is the forecast topic, and not oil or something else) “less than 70, with a gradual increase towards 70”.). And I don’t understand why this is “more accurate than mine”). It's no less vague than mine. I'm not making any claims, just observations. This time you wrote more specifically, which suits me more).

You, if possible, insert a quote and completely, otherwise it turns out the meaning is generally different, you just distort what I wrote. I wrote somewhere about the fact that the course will be 70? I have never made a single specific statement about the growth of the exchange rate to 70. I wrote that the exchange rate at the end of the year is no more than 70, making it clear to people that they do not really hope to return the money invested, how to convey this information to you ? And if you're talking about this:
“And based on the fact that we need to increase production, the state will help exports with all its might. For a perfect balance, we need a course of 65 now, with a gradual increase towards 70.” So he is still needed now, but it just doesn’t work out yet, and there is no statement that he will be 70 here either. The Ministry of Finance has already poured in 800+ billion to buy back the surplus, and I believe that this is not weak support, since the surplus is very large, it is not yet possible to pull it above 60. Although you say that we have a currency deficit)
I will repeat again! I have never written about the fact that the dollar in 2017 will grow strongly, especially in the region of 70, on the contrary, I answered that you will not see this figure very soon, for example, here is the answer:
“Marina, I apologize for the long answer, there was a lot of work. I think the rate 68 will not be until the end of 2017, and possibly only in 2018, so you just have to wait.”
Here I was asked specifically about the rate of 68. It was a year ago, that is, I let the person know that one should not hope that such a rate would not be in the near future, that is, there would be no weakening of the ruble, so it does not exist, about which 70 do you speak at all?
There are two options here, either you are trying to specifically “pin” me, or you are very inattentive when reading.
Konstantin, you better watch yourself, there is nothing at all from what you wrote that even closely reflects what is really happening now.

“Specially to splinter”, “they took care of themselves” .. Well, ok, I’ll keep silent further so as not to develop a senseless dispute.

Here you are really hooked on this, because there is nothing more to complain about at all. And you are trying to expose something completely different from what I had in mind, what is it called at all?
Let's go over everything else that I wrote a year ago.
1.Oil will gradually rise in price up to 70
2. Sanctions have not put pressure on the exchange rate for a long time, and their extension will not significantly affect the exchange rate.
3. I can say with full confidence that GDP in 2017 will not be in the red, perhaps the plus will not be significant, but you should definitely not expect a fall.
4. Do you remember what I told you that everything will change in foreign trade and the balance will increase by the end of the year and even be more than in 2015? But you flatly denied it! Well, here is the balance: November 2015 - 10107.7, November 2016 - 10405.7. December 2015- 12662.9, December 2016- 13217.7.
Well, this year the growth will be very significant compared to 2016, especially the first half of the year.

Where did I go wrong in the above? That's right - nowhere! And how could I, in your opinion, argue that the rate will be 70, if I myself wrote that there are a lot of deterrent factors and only at the state level can you somehow keep the rate and pull it up a little. Pulling it up a little does not mean that it will happen within a year or even two. I wrote that they would try not to let the exchange rate fall, as this would hit the economy, I wrote that they would gradually raise it to 65, and then to 70, but I didn’t say a word that they would do it in one year could write, as it may take a longer time and I understand this very well.
You just need to read carefully and everything will become clear immediately.

🙂 Come on.
1. I didn't say otherwise.
2. I didn't say otherwise either.
3. And here I did not state otherwise.
4. Of course I don’t remember, I have more than 11 thousand comments on the site! Why should I remember them all? I didn't "deny it categorically". you came up with). I specifically re-read all the comments, killing 10 minutes of time for this. No more, time is money. That is, and even here, where you write “categorically denied”, this is absolutely not the case.

And then twist again. Wow, because you are so calling for attentiveness ... I did not say that “you said that the course would be 70”. So you like to cling to words, but you read quite inattentively. I wrote that you stated that the rate would be NO MORE THAN 70, and turned out to be absolutely right, which is not at all surprising!) Just as if you wrote that it would be below 100 or above 40.

On this, the dispute on this topic is over, I will not publish more comments that pour from empty to empty - they are of no interest to anyone except you :-).

What is this currency forecast for 2018? This is not a forecast, but simply a set of different factors and those analysis without specifics. Maybe like this, maybe like that. You decide up or down.

Perhaps so, but the course will really depend on these factors, and how they will develop is difficult to predict, I don’t want to point my finger at the sky. I decided: the ruble is down, the currency is up (this is indicated in the conclusions), and I also set out my vision for each factor.

will grow in relation to 56-57?, that is, by the end of the year it will be higher - where you have levels 62-63.5 marked in blue? That is why the questions arise.

Firstly, the range of 10 rubles is for a moment equal to the range of fluctuations in Euros of 1000 points! Is the spread in the forecast too large?
You can give the same "prediction" as you give. Here is an example - “I predict a range for the ruble for 2018 of 50-60 rubles”

In general, I do not believe in growth in USD/RUB. Let's see how it will be in reality this year.
Thanks for the article.

Alexander, for a forecast for the whole year, provided that the previous years were not weakly so “stormy”, the range of 10 rubles is normal. Or do you think it's better to be like many "analysts" who try to give an accurate forecast, and then turn over 10 times a year?
As for the rest, I completely agree with you, I do not believe in a strong weakening of the ruble. And the fact that the article is not about anything, I also agree)

Hello Konstantin! I'm from Kazakhstan, your forecasts are always accurate, at least until today, it was so! we all often talk about the collapse of the $, is it possible? Since we don’t know in what currency to keep savings, so as not to lose ... if you answer I will be grateful ... Thank you ..

Hello Eileen. I have a bad idea of the situation in Kazakhstan, but I do not adhere to the theory of the collapse of the dollar. I once wrote on this subject separately:

Last year I read the article and comments by Mikhail and Konstantin with pleasure) Sometimes it happens that reading discussions is no less useful than reading articles. Thank you!
Kostantin, do not delete Michael's comments, please)
Mikhail, be more restrained (although I am for freedom of speech)), and we will have more interesting comments to read!)

I do not publish only what does not comply with the rules of commenting.

I think the forecast is correct, oil will be $ 40-44, the ruble will be hard + a mistake in the elections, President Putin will increase sanctions during the year, finish off the ruble. Only after the withdrawal of military equipment from Ukraine, the ruble will gradually strengthen

I don’t understand what is the point in forecasting 55-65
let's say a person has rubles and he wants to buy bucks so as not to fly in ... or turn in bucks and put rubles at interest ... or immediately rubles at interest ...
the essence is the same ... with the corridors written here, people who want to increase their capital will be at a loss.
after all, if the dollar rises in price, for example, then the current deposit rate in rubles will not return the amount in dollars to you ... and vice versa ...

Firstly, the forecast here is given for the whole year, and not for a short period, hence such a range! Secondly, no one here even thought to give advice on investments, there is only general information on the annual movement, and where and in what currency you invest is your own business.

Michael plus for the forecast. Thank you. Although everything is clear. It's a shame that with the increase in oil prices, the ruble did not react (remained the same), which means it fell. And God forbid, oil prices will also fall, then the ruble will also fall sharply ... ..So invest your savings in the yuan, or buy Chinese syndicates. We definitely won't lose here.

Thank you) The ruble actually did not fall! The ruble would have reacted with serious strengthening to the growth of oil, if the Ministry of Finance had not bought the currency in billions to support the exchange rate. If suddenly oil starts to fall sharply and the ruble weakens, then the Ministry of Finance will throw these purchased surpluses on the market and will not allow the ruble to fall sharply. The Ministry of Finance has serious sums at its disposal, they can change the value of currencies in one direction or another.

Good afternoon Konstantin, please comment on the situation with the ruble on 04/12/2018, the connection with the Syrian events, if converted into dollars or gold, your opinion is very important now ... Because there is a feeling of a critical situation!

Hello, Elena. The Syrian events, like the latest sanctions against the oligarchs, had a very negative impact on the ruble and the Russian economy in general. But personally, I do not yet see a supercritical situation, it is happening as I predicted: the ruble exchange rate has moved away from unreasonably high values and returned to its real range of 60-70. I did it, however, quite abruptly, due to the confluence of these two important fundamental factors, despite the oil price that has grown in price. As for the Syrian events, everything depends on what happens next. And it is difficult for me to assume this with high accuracy - I do not know what is in the head of the heads of state. Now the situation is really tense, and this is reflected in the exchange rate of the ruble and the price of oil.
If you look at the technical analysis, then a “triple bottom” pattern has formed on the weekly chart, and if it works, the rate will move higher to the level of about 66-67.

These sanctions are far from the most severe, so all these jumps are of a short-term nature with a gradual rollback to the region of 60, and possibly even lower. There are a whole bunch of factors that provide support for the ruble, so I would not hope for the rate of 66-67, as Konstantin writes. Of course, everything can change, but for now the reality is this.

Now with the ruble, what I described a year ago is happening. Everything is exactly as I wrote)

What's happening now:
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation allocates additional oil and gas revenues for the purchase of foreign currency, received due to higher oil prices compared to the budgeted one.
At the end of 2017, the Ministry of Finance purchased foreign currency for 829 billion rubles. During 2018, the Ministry of Finance can purchase foreign currency for about 2 trillion rubles. with oil prices of $54–55 per barrel, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimated at the end of December. At $60 per barrel, the volume of foreign currency purchases will amount to 2.8 trillion rubles. And at 75-80?
If not for the purchase of the Ministry of Finance, the rate would now be 50-55. And not sanctions, not everything that Konstantin likes to write about so much could not radically affect the weakening of the ruble.
It’s too early to talk about the 65-70 rate, I think that there won’t be such a rate this year, but 60-65 is quite real, although there is a high probability of going back - below 60, it all depends on the ratio of planned currency purchases and the cost of oil.

Hello dear analysts!
You, Konstantin and Mikhail, have an interesting pair of opinions that “make” this thread)))
In general, I am a person who is far from stock analysis, especially independent ones. So I'm looking for expert opinion.
The question of the price of the currency is selfishly relevant for me. Probably, now twist your finger at your temple, but, as a person of traditional views, a provincial without a commercial streak, in order to save money, she bought dollars and euros at the end of the year for a decent amount for me. I took dollars just below 58. The goal is to keep savings (well, at least I didn’t buy bitcoin at 12)))).
At the peak of the jump, dollars could not be sold, as she was leaving.
What do you think, is it worth selling now, tomorrow, for example, while it is slightly above 60?
I remember about my own responsibility when making a decision, but I need advice))) And what to store, maybe, really, in yuan?
Okhokhonyushkii ... Well, the country, as far as I can remember, is like a powder keg.

Hello, Elena. My opinion is not to sell. 🙂

Hello, Elena. It is difficult to advise something, I personally keep everything in rubles. The risk when buying dollars is very high, there are many factors that put pressure on the strengthening of the ruble. Now, for example, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran and the imposition of sanctions against this country will greatly affect the cost of oil, it will rise in price. And if the price of oil rises, then the flow of dollars into the country will increase accordingly. The Ministry of Finance is now buying up billions of foreign currency, but this does not allow the ruble to go below 60, if the Ministry of Finance reduces purchases of foreign currency, the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If, for example, oil rises in price to $ 85, then most likely the ruble will inevitably begin to strengthen. If you are lucky and the value of the dollar remains at the same level, then you will receive about 5-7% per year, which in principle can be comparable to inflation for this year, at best, you will save your money and possibly earn some money. But there is also a high probability of losing, because if the dollar rolls back to 58, you will lose% of inflation, and if it is below 58, then the losses will be much more serious, and you will be constantly nervous. Putting rubles on% you will receive the same 7-8%, while you will feel more relaxed,% will compensate you for inflation and a little more will remain. In the current situation, the ruble will not go above 65, but it can easily roll back to 58, cardinal changes may occur during the year, but so far the picture is as follows.

Konstantin, especially for you, because for several years you stubbornly wrote that the NWF was about to run out, but this never happened. And here it turns out that not only has it not been empty, but it has grown by 23.2%, which is what I was talking about.
The National Welfare Fund (NWF) grew by 23.2% in June 2018 and amounted to 4 trillion 839.26 billion rubles, which is equivalent to $77.11 billion. The last time we had such an amount in $ was back in 2014. Do you still believe in the depletion of the NWF?

Http://forum..html
Everything is happening with the ruble as I wrote in this forecast: the first jump took place after the presidential elections, the second (now) occurs in connection with the strengthening of sanctions, and according to technical analysis, a very clear figure was obtained that predicts this jump (monthly chart, figure “ flag” - the screen was attached on the forum), which worked. There are fundamental reasons for growth, there are also technical ones, the current jump, according to the rules of technical analysis, should raise the dollar to the 69 area.

So far, my forecast is coming true more than ever (hello to Mikhail)).

Further, everything depends on the news background. It is likely that a certain correction will follow, a rollback of the course back. This will be a favorable moment for those who want to buy dollars, euros. After that - growth again, perhaps more systematic. By the end of the year, I expect the exchange rate to be at least around 70. Maybe more, maybe less. Everything depends on the current situation. For example, with the same sanctions: will there be a second, more “terrible” wave, which is expected in 90 days. How will the Central Bank behave, what will happen to oil, and so on.

“So far my prediction is coming true more than ever”
The key word here is never) As far as I remember, your predictions never came true, but here you might be lucky to guess, according to probability theory, sooner or later you would be right. At the beginning of the year, not you, not me, could not have known about future sanctions, in that situation, the exchange rate could not go above 65, if you pay attention, the growth was only due to sanctions. I also want to draw your attention to the fact that last year and this year I wrote that they would try to weaken the ruble, but on their own they would not be able to raise the exchange rate above 65 this year, sanctions helped)
Now it is very difficult to predict anything, it all depends on the actions of the Ministry of Finance, if they stop buying foreign currency for a long time, then we will see a serious rollback, if they continue to buy in full, then it will be more difficult for the ruble to strengthen. We must not forget that August is considered the most difficult month for the ruble, then the exchange rate stabilizes. The sanctions announced in the future are quite serious, but it is not known whether they will be applied in full or at all.
I must agree that today your forecast looks realistic, let's see what happens next.

Yes, right). Completely came true. And now it's especially true. Naturally, I assumed about sanctions: foreign policy does not change, which means that sanctions, as they have become tougher, will continue to be tougher.

But I am not writing this in order to show myself as a "cool analyst who can be unconditionally trusted and followed." Rather - just for you personally)).

No one doubted that the sanctions would be, the point is what kind of restrictions would be applied, and no one could know about this at that time. Sanctions could be both softer and tougher compared to those that were introduced, I meant this. I do not rule out that the rate may fly above 70, but there is also a high probability of a rollback (this has happened more than once). Let's see what happens next, 3 more months ahead.

Let's see, of course. So far, the average annual range is 60-70 with an upward trend (as I have written). At the same time, it may go beyond 70 by the end of the year or not by the end. The toughest sanctions so far are scheduled for November, but already in anticipation of them, the rate went up.

Nevertheless, there are more chances for the ruble to fall against Russia. The Americans have already started an open economic war here and can put pressure on the Saudis to make oil prices fall and start disconnecting from settlements in dollars and other obstacles, and even we must take into account the low competence of our leadership, I’m not saying that all sorts of provocations on the military fronts of Ukraine and Syria.

The Central Bank refused to buy foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance until the end of December, oil is under 80. The only counterweight to the strengthening of the ruble is future sanctions, but many doubt that the previously announced restrictions will be adopted, most likely they will be softer. We expect the ruble to strengthen in the near future.

The question of whether the dollar will rise in the near future worries many people. This opinion is supported by many analysts, they believe that in all available parameters the dollar is close to the development of an uptrend.

The growth of the American currency is ensured by the fact that there are technical and fundamental prerequisites for this. They are mainly related to the fact that the debt crisis in the Eurozone is still very far from being over.

If you conduct a technical analysis of this issue, then, according to currency strategists, there are good reasons to assume that the uptrend, which has just begun, will continue in both the medium and long term.

Dollars will rise in price also because this is the policy of the United States of America: one of its main goals is to reduce oil prices.

It is no secret to anyone that high oil prices are unprofitable for the United States, so there is nothing strange in the fact that everything is being done to make the prices of black gold fall. In turn, this leads to a depreciation of the Russian ruble against the US currency.

Consequences of a Weak European Economy

Speaking about the reasons for the growth of usd, it should be recalled once again: the dollar is strengthening not so much because the US economy is flourishing, but because the economies of many Eurozone countries are in distress.

Unemployment is rising in many European countries, large debts and high social spending mean that the single European currency cannot compete with the dollar.

So how much will the dollar rise, is this the reason why you need to panic and urgently buy the US currency? After the growth of the American currency in the first days of 2014 was the most rapid and the psychological bar was overcome, a large number of people began to rapidly buy usd, but this only contributed to its further growth. Employees of leading banks note that a large amount of US currency was bought up not only by individuals, but also by many large companies.

Of course, when there is an increase, the Russian currency immediately begins to decline in price. Against this background, rates on ruble short-term loans are growing. If we take into account the fact that the largest bank customers, who have more than a million dollars in their accounts (they were in rubles), now prefer to place their funds in foreign currency deposits.

Russians buy dollars

After the Russian ruble broke the psychological mark, some private clients began to shift their existing savings into usd, as some believe that the weakening of the Russian national currency is based on fundamental factors. And after some Russian banks began to sell foreign currency in limited volumes, the situation only worsened, and at one time even psychosis began to be observed.

However, you should not give in to panic - the Central Bank of Russia is responding quite adequately to the current situation; the largest Russian financial institution plans to sell $200 million every day. Leading experts believe that in this way the market will calm down, since the long-term rate of the US currency is absolutely not beneficial to anyone. If the outflow of capital remains the same, then the Central Bank of Russia has every opportunity to make massive interventions.

The question of the possible growth of the dollar is extremely worrying for a large number of traders who trade in financial markets. It should be taken into account that there is a correction in the foreign exchange market, and no definite trends are observed.

Specialists in Russian economic development are fully confident that the exchange rate of the Russian currency against the US ruble will be significantly reduced. There is an opinion that already in 2025 for one American dollar they will give more than 43 rubles.

Other reasons for the growth of the American currency

There are quite good reasons for this, one of which is the innovative way of the country's development. However, according to economic forecasts, by 2030 the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the dollar will begin to strengthen. According to some experts, the innovative way of Russia's development is the only way out of its rapid development. However, there are changes that will cause certain negative consequences to occur. Due to the fact that the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the country are very large (and no decrease is expected in the near future), it becomes clear that there are no reasons for the most pessimistic forecasts.

And yet the main reason for the growth of the dollar is that the economy of many European countries is not in the best position. In this regard, many leading experts expect the fall of the single European currency, which leads to the strengthening of the US currency. The US economy is far from ideal, but today no one can oppose it. Despite the fact that it is very difficult to make far-sighted forecasts for the future, there is no doubt: the main competitor of the dollar cannot oppose the usd. Given the current situation in the world, there is no doubt that usd will grow.

Such a forecast can be changed by each state individually, but at present there are no prerequisites for cardinal changes to take place in the world economic market.

In order for Europe to be able to strengthen its currency, it needs to make every effort to get out of the economic crisis. Nevertheless, it should be noted that at the current stage, all the prerequisites will be unsuccessful, and this is the reason that the dollar will grow.

The particularly difficult position of Europe in the banking sector, the world economy is not happy with this state of affairs, this can have the most negative impact on the formation of relations that have developed in the economy. Suffice it to say that the ratings of the leading banks in Portugal and the UK have been significantly downgraded.

Will the usd rate rise further?

The growth of the dollar can also be explained by the fact that in Russia there is a return of debts on a large scale. And not only the state, but also leading banks and enterprises are engaged in repayment of debts. In order to repay debts, banks used to borrow currency, now it is being bought on the market. And this contributes to the fact that there is a leakage of currency from the country. As for the state, the return of foreign currency debts is carried out in the form of export payments. Export duties are transferred to the Russian budget, which is an outflow of foreign currency. The outflow of foreign currency through the repatriation of income received by investors is very large - at least $2 billion a year.

Strange as it may seem, the dollar will also grow because the standard of living of the majority of Russian citizens is getting higher year by year. This is a fact that is hard to argue with. And the more people earn, the more they spend, this is an axiom. Consumer demand is growing, in order to fully satisfy it, you need a large amount of currency, which contributes to its appreciation. And despite the fact that the prices for the American currency have risen, the demand for it is high.

According to economists and analysts polled by Forbes, the average price of a barrel of Brent in 2017 will be $54.1, and the dollar will cost 63.1 rubles. At the same time, strong volatility in the oil and currency markets will continue next year, experts are sure.

Expensive barrel

Only 8 out of 30 experts surveyed believe that the average annual oil price in 2017 will be higher than the current one ($56 per barrel), the rest are sure that it will remain at the same level or will be lower. There are two most significant factors that affect the dynamics of oil prices - an oversupply and the dollar exchange rate, says Natalya Prokhorova, head of the research and forecasting group at ACRA. The state of the oil market will gradually stabilize due to the OPEC agreements and the growth in demand - this will push prices up. But the dollar will continue to strengthen against world currencies against the background of the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy - this may negatively affect oil quotes, because commodities are denominated in dollars and, with its growth, become more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

ING Chief Economist for Russia and the CIS Dmitry Polevoy calls incomplete implementation of OPEC agreements one of the main risks for oil prices. Almost all interviewed experts fear the same. If 2016 was marked by verbal interventions by OPEC, then next year will be devoted to criticism of how the agreements reached by the cartel and other producing countries will be implemented, Arbat Capital analyst Vitaly Gromadin and Arbat Capital managing director Alexei Golubovich believe. “That said, next year the market will indeed be closer to balance, as global demand continues to grow at a strong pace, and the potential for increased production in countries such as Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia is limited after this year’s furious race,” they wrote. .

Another risk is US oil production; its volume declined when prices were low, but may start to rise when prices recover. Already current oil prices create conditions for an increase in the number of active drilling wells in the United States, which brings shale companies out of a coma, says Viktor Veselov, chief analyst at Globex Bank (VEB group). “In addition, if the US president-elect opens federal land and waters for oil drilling, this will increase oil production, which in the future will lead to market saturation and a gradual decrease in the price of fuel,” he adds.

All these factors will result in high volatility during the year, the experts interviewed believe. In the first half of 2017, as we move from words about cutting production to action, oil prices can instantly rise to $60-65 per barrel, says Yury Arkhangelsky, head of investment products at KIT Finance Broker. “But with such a development of events, shale producers may revive in the second half of the year, which will return quotes to $45-50 per barrel,” he adds. Veselov from Globex believes that quotes may rise to $70. And Oleg Kuzmin, chief economist for Russia and the CIS at Renaissance Capital, does not rule out a fall to $40 per barrel.

And what about the ruble?

Most economists and analysts (24 out of 30) polled by Forbes believe that the average annual value of the dollar will be higher than the current level of 61 rubles. At the same time, two-thirds of experts believe that its value will not exceed 65 rubles.

The ruble has found a new balance in recent months, says Renaissance Capital's Kuzmin. This is primarily due not to the dynamics of oil prices, but to a sharp reduction in capital outflow, he is sure. “According to our estimates, the outflow of capital from Russia in 2016-2017 will total about $30 billion compared to $190 billion in the previous two years,” adds Kuzmin.

In the outgoing year, the main factor in the stability of the ruble was the improvement in the financial account due to the fact that Russian assets have become interesting for non-residents, adds Vladimir Bragin, Director for Financial Markets and Macroeconomics Analysis at Alfa Capital. The course now reacts either to strong oil movements or to major changes in expectations, and moderate fluctuations in oil prices are perceived by the market calmly, he says.

“In 2017, Russian assets will remain attractive. The resumption of economic growth will be accompanied by an influx of investment and an increase in consumption, and hence imports. Therefore, despite the expected rise in oil prices, the current account will remain low,” adds Bragin. Another deterrent for the ruble will be the already high share of foreign investors in Russian assets.

In addition, the Bank of Russia will prevent a stronger strengthening of the ruble, said Alexei Pogorelov, chief economist for Russia at Credit Suisse. In his opinion, "the Central Bank will be ready to start replenishing reserves by buying foreign currency from the market, already in the first quarter, if the ruble approaches the level of 57 per dollar."

But even below 65-70 rubles per dollar, the exchange rate will not fall due to high real rates, adds Pogorelov. “In relative terms, the ruble looks attractive against emerging market currencies with large current account deficits (in our region it is the Turkish lira and the South African rand), as well as against low-yielding currencies of developed countries (euro, yen and Swiss franc),” says Pogorelov.

At the same time, David Kohl, chief currency strategist Julius Baer, recalls the traditionally high volatility of the dollar/ruble exchange rate. In his opinion, at the maximum, the dollar can reach 85 rubles in 2017, and at the minimum - 58 rubles. Volatility will be driven by oil price dynamics and external factors, as well as significant seasonality in the current account of the balance of payments, says Egor Susin, chief expert at Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting.

Type