Experts assessed the prospects for the development of national cryptocurrencies. How to independently assess business prospects Expected cash flows

MOSCOW, June 30 - RIA Novosti. The Russian economy noticeably recovered by the end of the first half of the year - in May, annual GDP growth almost doubled compared to April, consumer demand is trying to gain a foothold in the positive zone after two years of decline, and investments are also showing steady growth. The planned trends will continue in the third quarter, but the economy is unlikely to show annual growth rates above 2% by the end of September, according to analysts polled by RIA Novosti.

According to Rosstat, Russia's GDP in the first quarter of 2017 grew by 0.5% in annual terms. According to the results of the first five months of the year, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development, the economy reached a growth of 1.3% compared to the same period last year; in May, GDP accelerated to 3.1% in annual terms after 1.7% in April.

The Bank of Russia expects that the economy in the second quarter of 2017 will demonstrate growth rates at the level of 0.9-1.3% in annual terms, in the third - about 1.3%.

Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin is more optimistic and expects to see GDP dynamics above 2% already in autumn. According to him, the latest statistics allow us to say with some confidence that the economy will show growth of 2% by the end of the year.

"The relatively positive results of the first quarter, if the trends continue throughout the year, will lead to really good final results in terms of economic growth," said Dmitry Kulikov, an expert at the ACRA Research and Forecasting Group.

Reason for optimism

According to the consensus forecast, prepared on the basis of a survey of analysts of banks and investment companies, Russia's GDP growth in the third quarter will be 1.68%.

"May data show that growth is somewhat accelerating and, based on this, I assume that if there are no new shocks, then figures of about 2% do not seem to be any unrealistic, quite an achievable figure," says ING chief analyst Dmitry Polevoy. According to him, ING's forecast is GDP growth by 1.9% year-on-year in the third quarter.

A slightly more optimistic forecast is given by Renaissance Capital - GDP growth in the third quarter will be 2.1%.

"We expect to see the continuation of favorable trends associated with the recovery of economic activity in the Russian economy, including against the background of the transition of annual growth rates of consumer demand into a positive area against the backdrop of an end to the fall in real incomes of the population and the normalization of the savings rate," believes the chief economist for Russia and CIS "Renaissance Capital" Oleg Kuzmin.

Chief Economist of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Yaroslav Lissovolik also links economic growth opportunities with domestic economic factors.

"Against the background of an expected slow recovery in external demand, the main sources of growth in the medium term will be domestic economic factors. The preservation of the emerging recovery dynamics of consumer and investment activity will be supported by a gradual easing of monetary policy. According to our estimates, the annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2017 will be 1. 3%,” he says.

Approximately the same estimates are given by analysts from ACRA (1.2%), Uralsib Capital (1.3%), VTB (1.5%) and Finam (1.5%). Citi's most optimistic forecast, according to their expectations, GDP growth in the third quarter will reach 2.6% yoy.

growth base

The Ministry of Economic Development is also pinning hopes on the restoration of consumption and investment. The minister even called investment activity the main basis for economic growth in the coming years.

In the first quarter, investments grew by 2.3% compared to last year. The Ministry of Economic Development does not rule out that the investment forecast for the year will be raised from 2% to 3%.

Lissovolik expects annual investment growth of 2% in the third quarter.

"The continuation of the downward trend of the key rate creates opportunities for economic growth in the second half of this year, both in the investment sector and in the consumer sector," he said.

As for consumer demand, in May, retail turnover showed an increase in annual terms (by 0.7%) for the second month in a row after more than two years of decline. The Ministry of Economic Development believes that these positive trends are becoming sustainable.

Analysts interviewed by RIA Novosti expect that retail turnover growth will continue in the third quarter, but their estimates of the annual growth rate of this indicator vary greatly - from 4.1% (Uralsib) to 1% (EDB).

"The growth of retail trade turnover will be facilitated by keeping unemployment at a low level, the growth of real wages and the gradual transition of the population from the savings to the consumer model of behavior," Lissovolik believes.

According to Kulikov from ACRA, consumption cannot be a growth driver in 2017, including due to the continuing decline in real incomes of the population.

weather shock

A protracted spring and an unusually cold summer not only spoiled the mood of the Russians, but also somewhat blurred inflationary dynamics. According to Rosstat, food inflation in Russia accelerated to 3.9% in annual terms in May from 3.6% in April due to the growth in vegetable prices.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects that in July-August the prices for vegetable products will go down following the arrival of a new crop on the market.

According to ING's Polevoy, it is still difficult to assess how the vagaries of the weather will affect the dynamics of consumer prices in general. "Our previous forecast was 3.8%, but given that now the growth is somewhat higher due to fruits and vegetables, maybe we will be closer to 4%. But now it's too early to say how large-scale the weather shock will be," he said. .

Analysts' forecasts for inflation in annual terms at the end of September range from 3.8% to 4.3%.

“Even if the price dynamics for the remaining months will be relatively unfavorable due to force majeure of volatile food prices, the January-March “reserve” will save, although this will mean a slower reduction in the key rate,” Kulikov from ACRA is sure.

The ruble is stable

According to the consensus forecast, the ruble exchange rate in the third quarter will average 59.3 rubles per dollar.

The ruble could weaken slightly to 61 rubles per dollar by the end of the quarter amid a seasonal current account deficit and continued purchases of foreign currency by the Russian Finance Ministry, Kuzmin of Renaissance Capital said.

At the same time, according to Oreshkin, the persistence of high oil prices, which are currently observed on the market, may be the reason for revising the forecast in August towards the strengthening of the ruble, but the changes will not be of a cardinal nature.

Oil risks

The agreements reached by the oil exporting countries to extend the reduction in oil production until the end of March 2018 were positive, but not sufficient conditions for stabilizing the oil market, analysts say.

Presenting the scenario conditions for 2018-2020 at a government meeting on Thursday, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development noted that there is high volatility in the raw materials market.

Additional volumes of oil coming from the increase in production in Libya, Nigeria and the United States carry serious risks, so the level of oil prices of $40 per barrel in real terms laid down in the three-year period looks reasonable, Oreshkin said.

The basic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development proceeds from the average annual price of Urals oil in 2017 at $45.6 per barrel, in 2018 - $40.8, in 2019 and 2020 - $41.6 and $42.4 per barrel.

Does not add optimism to the market and increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East after a number of countries have severed diplomatic relations with Qatar.

"At the moment, it is important not to revise the parameters of the deal (to reduce production - ed.), but to fulfill the agreements, since the increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East in June increases uncertainty about the stability of this agreement and the further dynamics of energy prices," Lissovolik notes.

According to him, the average price of Urals oil in the third quarter will be $50 per barrel.

ACRA analysts believe that the average price of Urals oil in the third quarter will be at the level of $53 per barrel; Finam's forecast is $51.3 per barrel of Brent oil.

Go to photo bank

The ratio of "oil" revenues and other revenues to the budget

Increasing state participation in economic activity will lead to the fact that in six years the Russian real estate market will be significantly different from today, analysts predict

Rental rates for commercial real estate in Russia over the next six years may increase by 15-20% from the current level. In general, until 2024 there will be no significant speculative growth in the commercial real estate market. This is stated in a study by the international consulting company Cushman & Wakefield (C&W), presented to journalists on Tuesday.

The company's experts expect an increase in the role of the state and its influence on the Russian real estate market in the new six-year economic course of the government. “Several main factors will influence the market - tax increases, increased state control over business, the development of Russian production, the digital economy, lending, urban development, and others,” predicted Denis Sokolov, partner of the company, head of the C&W research department.

During this period, the trend for aging and obsolescence of offices, shopping centers and industrial real estate for recently built facilities will also increase. According to Denis Sokolov, the new supply of offices and shopping centers will be formed through the reconstruction of facilities built in the 1990s, and to a lesser extent through new construction.

“In a six-year electoral cycle, the expediency of building a particular facility will be determined not by its economic model, not by its sustainability or profitability, but by its role in a larger large-scale project or state program. The main bottleneck will be access to credit resources, and it is participation in the state project that will open access to these resources for development companies. Commercial development will be episodic, occupying niche positions,” predicted Denis Sokolov.

One of the main factors that will affect the players and the commercial real estate market will be an increase in the tax burden, the company's experts believe. “This means that the requirements for the profitability and marginality of the business will begin to increase. The survival of the low-margin business and industry will be in question,” Denis Sokolov explained.

Strengthening state control and regulation of markets and business analysts of the company also call an important and expected factor in the next six years. “The growth of the bureaucracy will lead to demand for jobs, the need for personnel responsible for interaction with the regulator. In general, this will create additional vacancies. At the same time, Denis Sokolov sees advantages for the office real estate market in this situation. “Additional jobs create a need for additional office space, which is good for brokers, developers and business center owners,” the analyst said.

In the next six years, analysts expect the state to continue to rely on its own production. “Construction of production facilities that fit into the state concept will get the green light and access to financing,” said Denis Sokolov.

Urban development will be an important factor for the next six years. “We see how Moscow has changed. The social and economic consequences of these reforms will only begin to show in the coming years. Already today we can state the death of the central business district of the capital, which was limited to the Garden Ring. We see the decentralization of offices and the expansion of the center, which is already limited by the TTC. Within six years, the center of Moscow will go further and reach the second metro ring, ”summed up the C&W partner.

MOSCOW, November 15 - RIA Novosti. Cryptocurrencies in ten years will be widely used as a means of payment, national cryptocurrencies will appear in various countries around the world, according to experts interviewed by RIA Novosti.

In October, Evgeny Kaspersky said that cryptocurrencies will work well in a single world, but the world is not yet ready for them. According to his forecast, in 300 years, cryptocurrencies will be “an absolutely amazing thing.”

Analysts believe that it is impossible to predict what will happen in 300 years with cryptocurrencies and the new market associated with them. At the same time, experts are sure that in 10 years cryptocurrencies will not disappear, but, on the contrary, will become a new integral part of the global financial market.

near future

According to experts, technological progress continues, the world is constantly changing, and these changes also apply to cryptocurrencies. Such a development is already observed today, they believe.

“I believe that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have great value right now, today. We do not need to wait 300 years. We should strive for a world where anyone, anywhere, if they want, can buy and sell cryptocurrencies,” says the co-founder and head Cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes.

"The only thing I'm sure of is that in 300 years I'll be dead," said Brave New Coin technical analyst Josh Olszewicz.

As economist commentator Maxim Blunt noted, Kaspersky's position is "strange". "The essence and meaning is precisely that the rules are simple, unchanging, the same for everyone and not subject to anyone's influence. This is significant right now and not so significant in a hypothetical "single world" that neither Kaspersky nor anyone else can live up to of our contemporaries," he said.

“Today, money is radically different from what it was called 15 years ago. I am so old that I remember the times when plastic cards and payment systems were a curiosity. I also remember the times when there was no Internet. It is difficult to imagine the life of Russians without them today Everything has been happening very quickly lately .... Already now, bitcoin, not to mention most of the altcoins that appeared later (alternative cryptocurrencies formed as a result of a fork - changes in the rules for conducting transactions within the network - ed.), is not limited to the performance of the functions inherent in the currency. Therefore, it makes sense to talk about the future of cryptocurrencies in the context of discussions about the transformation of money as such. You can write a whole book about this," the expert added.

Andrey Koptelov, director of the Center for Economic Research at Synergy University, pointed out that 300 years ago, no one could even predict the technologies that are now being actively used. “At the same time, the rate of penetration of new technologies into our lives is increasing every year, and each new technological solution becomes in demand faster than the previous one, and that is why it can be guaranteed that cryptocurrencies will become an amazing thing even in this century,” he said.

The expert believes that over the next 10 years, cryptocurrencies will experience many more ups and downs. “It is possible that the place of bitcoin will be occupied by other financial instruments, and ordinary investors will lose their investments. But it is safe to say that many more solutions will appear based on blockchain technologies over these 10 years that will gradually change our lives,” he said. . Koptelov added that in 300 years the very concept of cryptocurrency will change,

"Cryptocurrencies will become a completely new tool for the most advanced users, among which, of course, are developers, programmers, mathematicians, global businessmen. We are now seeing the birth of a completely new market in the form of bitcoin, ether and other cryptocurrencies, in which new goods and services will be created, sold only for cryptocurrencies," the founder of the DeCenter portal Evgeny Gordeev shared his assumption.

“In 5-10 years, we will probably use the crypto mainstream to pay for everything. The means of payment can be either bitcoin or the state digital currency. People overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in 10 years I think that in 10 years we will see national cryptocurrencies everywhere - they are easier to track," Olshevich said.

"In today's realities, it is difficult to predict what the world of cryptocurrencies will be like in a year. It is even more difficult to make reasonable forecasts for 10 years. We may face both the widespread use of cryptocurrencies and changes in current financial and government institutions, and the complete oblivion of this idea. But the latter is very it is unlikely, because the vector is set, and the leading economies of the world are seriously working on this market .... With the speed of changes in our lives that we have now, we will certainly have completely new payment instruments (in 300 years - ed.)", - the founder believes and the head of the rating agency ICOrating Alexander Kamshilov.

Russia has something to strive for

A number of countries around the world have already opened their markets for cryptocurrencies - digital instruments based on blockchain technology. The most popular cryptocurrency in the world is Bitcoin. However, the Russian authorities are approaching this issue with caution. The Central Bank has repeatedly stated about the premature admission of cryptocurrencies to trading in the Russian Federation and warned about the high risks of their use.

"Many countries, including Russia, restrict the movement of capital, many fix or manage the exchange rate of their national currencies. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, have a cross-border nature. They destroy the monopoly of states on money, and in this sense are ahead of their time. Now we fully recognize and switch to them, abandoning strong national currency, no one is ready. Switching to bitcoin is the same as switching to foreign currency. At the same time, creating your own centrally issued electronic currencies is not only possible, but also becoming more and more attractive for states," says Mansur Huseynov, an expert at the Cryptolife portal .

"The key issue in the financial sector is trust in the currency and the convenience of making payments. As soon as cryptocurrencies survive all the "growing pains" and reach a uniform development without financial bubbles and prohibitive volatility, Russians will begin to use them in everyday life along with the ruble and other currencies. Despite legal restrictions, there are areas of life where cryptocurrency settlements will become commonplace already this decade, regardless of whether this state approves or not,” Koptelov believes.

“It is difficult to predict the timeframe when cryptocurrencies will become familiar to most Russians, most likely 20 years will be enough, if, of course, cryptocurrencies are allowed by the state, and also provided with technological solutions that allow anyone to use them,” the expert suggested.

"A small part of the Russian population has already come into contact with the world of cryptocurrencies, mainly for the purpose of investing in the currencies themselves or in projects conducting ICOs (public offering of tokens). If we talk about the widespread use of cryptocurrencies, it is difficult to make time forecasts. Much depends on the joint efforts of the state and many interested organizations," Kamshilov said.

“Russians are already familiar with cryptocurrencies. Russians are some of the best programmers in the world. They are definitely familiar with bitcoin. If our society does not regress technologically, we will continue to be more interconnected with the Internet or similar networks, then cryptocurrencies will become ubiquitous,” I am sure Hayes.

Roman Tkachuk, a senior analyst at Alpari, made a similar prediction for cryptocurrencies, noting that the popularity of bitcoin will continue in 300 years as the “first cryptocurrency.” However, he warned that paper money would not go to waste. “There will always be a category of citizens who are cautious about all new products (be it plastic cards, cryptocurrencies or something else) - they are more accustomed and calmer to use paper money,” he explained his point of view.

It is possible to effectively plan business development, optimize personnel costs and product promotion only if there is a clear idea of ​​the company's financial position in the near future and for years to come. There are several ways to assess the possible profit from the sale of their services and products. All of them involve statistics on previous and current sales, and for greater reliability in forecasting future profits, it is better to use all three methods.

Method #1

Find out what the average sales and profit margins of other companies of your type and size in the area are. It will take at least a year for a new business to reach the average indicators, so the obtained figures of competitors will have to be slightly adjusted downward. However, these data will be closer to reality than, for example, 2% of the average per capita income of the inhabitants of your city taken from the ceiling.

Method #2

Calculate the number of potential customers who need your products or services and live within a radius of 5 km from the enterprise. Estimate how much money they spend on similar products or services. How much of them can you attract, and how much of your competitors? Do the same for the 10 km radius, decreasing the sales forecast figures (use distances that make sense in your area).

Method #3

If your firm is engaged in different types of goods and services, estimate the revenue from the sale of each of them. Reassess sales after 6 months, calculate the gross sales per day from the first month to the sixth, and then continue the trend line for another six months. You will receive an annual profit forecast.
When forecasting annual sales, these three methods should be combined, then among the results there will be optimistic, realistic and pessimistic figures.

If you decompose the data obtained by months, taking into account seasonal drops and growth in sales, and then overlay data on your expenses for the purchase of equipment, salaries of employees, tax payments, etc., then the resulting picture will allow you to adjust the organization's cash flows. It will be possible to create a reserve of funds for a period of low sales and choose the most opportune moment for large investments. Remember that in the first months, a negative cash flow is quite possible, when incomes will not cover current expenses. Further business development, payback, tactics and strategy of behavior in the market will depend on your management decisions. The main thing is to have a realistic plan based on well-executed forecasts.

Of course, a sales forecast based on revenue and expense data disaggregated by month will provide more information than a single yearly figure. With the results of three different forecasts, you can orient yourself and prepare for the worst-case scenario by securing the firm with financial reserve and the patience to get through the initial difficulties. If the real results of the activity turn out to be better than the pessimistic forecast, then we can talk about the success of the business.

Today I want to talk about an amazingly simple, fast and effective way to evaluate projects. Without complex analysis of financial and economic activities, without huge business plans, without expensive research. The method is so simple that it is hard to believe that it is possible. And yet, it is so. It's possible and it works. And I personally had the opportunity more than once to verify this. If you have ever had to choose your market strategy or make a decision about investing in a particular project, you will understand what I am talking about.

And yet, the number of hits in the sky in the form of failed projects is amazing.

The authors of the method that I will talk about rightly believe that " argumentation on ten thousand pages does not prove anything, since with such a volume it is impossible to notice all the hidden contradictions". And many people actively use it. They gave out a ton of paper - get it, choke, analyze it.

Many plans have passed through my hands. Various quality and volume. Over time, I learned to catch the main tricks of unscrupulous "business writers" and the main mistakes of conscientious enthusiasts. But my approaches were intuitive, albeit based on experience, but not formalized.

When I was first introduced to the method quantum economic analysis(IEA, or "Idea Audit" as it's called), my first thought was, "Damn! It explains everything! This is what I knew, but could not articulate!”.

So, enough talk, let's see how it works!

The essence of the method is that the success or failure of a business project depends on a combination of three factors: product, company and market. More precisely from their level of maturity.

Each of these factors individually can be great, but only knowing how successful their combination is, one can draw a conclusion about the future of the project. Indeed, how many interesting products and inventions have never seen their buyer?

“The situation with the wrong combinations of components resembles a medical pathology. Imagine a charming female head sitting on the thin neck of a three-year-old boy. And all this on the body of a completely healthy old woman, from which pumped up arms and legs of a thirty-year-old man depart. Each individual organ is absolutely normal. But by combining them, we get an ugly monster. And it is fortunate that this monster is not viable, since the blood supply provided by the senile heart is not enough for the load given by male arms and legs. And the weight of a woman's head will simply break a child's neck.
Are you horrified by the described monster? And yet, every day you see and do not notice companies around you that are no better. Moreover, even within a great company, projects often arise that fit into it like a beard in a girl's profile.

Everyone knows the product life cycle graph (see figure). The main stages are marked with a dotted line:

As you know, companies and markets develop in a similar way - the same S-shaped curve is everywhere.

The maturity phase of each factor can be conditionally assessed on a scale, in a simplified form, given in this table:

	State of the art
	0	1	2	3	4
Product		Industrial design ready for production. The product has proven its performance and potential.	Active development of the product, the emergence of new features and capabilities.	The product is brought to the maximum possible characteristics.	Reduction of characteristics to the level required by the market at the moment.
Company		Access to capital from $100,000 to $3 million (garage, self-financing, business angels). situational management.	Access to capital from $10 million to $100 million (investment funds, private investors). regular management.	Access to capital from $100 million (IPO, but not required). Bureaucracy, traditions.
Market	Buy only single enthusiasts.	Buys an innovative minority (but not yet leaving the old market).	Mass consumption, abandonment of old markets.	Everyone uses.	Leaving for new markets, the conservative minority remains.

After assessing your product, your company and the market in which you intend to operate on this scale, you can check the resulting values ​​​​in this figure:

The “physical meaning” of this scheme is also easy to understand: with the development of the market, more and more large and mature companies begin to work on it, which, thanks to their investments, offer more mature and advanced products. Those. The principle is simple - evolve or die. Improve your product and your business processes or get left out.

What else does this mean? That young start-ups and "innovative" products (that is, those at the beginning of their life cycle) have a place to start in young markets where there is no mass sales (and, accordingly, golden rain) yet. Those. even a successful start does not promise you a sharp take-off. And God forbid you try to bring your "innovations" to mature markets.

It would seem that everything is obvious. But how many companies fall into these traps… Try to take your project(s) and rate them on this scale. Is everyone in the green zone?

As you can see, the method is so simple that it can be used in "streaming" mode by companies of any size. It doesn't cost anything, just honesty and some understanding of its target market. Unfortunately, I have not met him in any university program or MBA course.

Of course, my short article does not cover all the nuances of FEA - it is only intended to arouse interest in this technique. You can read more about the method in the book "Quantum Economic Analysis (QEA) or the Science of Winning in Investments, Management and Marketing" by Alexander Schneider (Ph.D.), Yakov Katsman and Givi Topchishvili (Feasibility Study Institute).