Analysis of the commercial real estate rental market. Analysis of the commercial real estate market from Praedium. CBRE analyzed the Russian outlet market

General characteristics of the industrial and warehouse real estate market in the region

The past year 2013 was an extremely favorable period for the warehouse real estate market and is characterized by high supply and demand indicators - despite the high commissioning volumes, the vacancy rate remained at a low level (1-2%). In 2013, a high level of absorption was observed - about 1.3 million sq. m. m.

As one of the most significant market events, experts note the revision of the classification of industrial and warehouse real estate in Moscow. According to the measurable clarifications proposed by Knight Frank, Class A+ properties differ from Class A properties in greater spacing between spans, ultra-flat floors with anti-dust coating, higher load capacity on floors, and a heating system that provides at least +14 at outdoor air temperature up to - 35C (excluding low-temperature storage conditions).

Experts call PNK-Chekhov of the PNK Group a striking example of such a facility (class A+). In addition to meeting the above characteristics, experts note large turnaround and parking areas, logical organization of access roads, quality of coverage, etc. entrance and autonomous systems of communications and power supply.

Offer on the market of industrial and warehouse real estate in Moscow and the Moscow region

The volume of commissioned space in the market of industrial and warehouse real estate in the Moscow region in 2013, according to various estimates, amounted to about 800 thousand square meters. m, and the total volume of quality supply - about 9 million square meters. m. According to experts, these commissioning volumes are a record for the last 4 years, while almost all new objects belong to class "A". One of the main reasons for the growth in the share of high-class properties in new construction is the increased demand from companies for which a high-tech warehouse is a way to increase the turnover of goods.

The largest volumes of commissioned industrial and warehouse space in 2013 were noted in the southern and southeastern directions. These directions, together with the southwestern one, are traditionally in high demand, and, as a result, the largest volumes of supply are concentrated there. This direction of supply and demand is due to freight flows passing through the M-4 highway and Simferopol highway.

Figure 1. Geographic structure of industrial and warehouse space commissioning (according to Praedium data)

A significant share in the volume of commissioned industrial and warehouse space in 2013 was occupied by large market players. For example, PNK Group continued to develop the PNK-Chekhov project (the first stage of PNK-Chekhov 2 was commissioned) and PNK-Vnukovo (building No. 9 was commissioned).

In the logistics park "PNK-Chekhov 2" in the second half of the year, buildings 2 and 3 with a total area of ​​​​about 127 thousand square meters were commissioned. m. This project has become the largest commissioned object of a new quality proposal on the Moscow market. The logistics park is located in the city of Chekhov, 49 km along the Simferopol highway from the Moscow Ring Road, near the PNK-Chekhov project of the same name. According to the developer's plans, the implementation of the warehouse project will be completed in 2014, when the total area of ​​the complex will reach 286 thousand square meters. m.

The second place in terms of the scale of commissioning went to the project introduced in the first half of 2013. They became the logistics park "Logopark Sever", with an area of ​​110 thousand square meters. m. The developer of the project was the company "Karavella". This warehouse facility is located 7 km from the Moscow Ring Road along the Leningradskoye highway in the Solnechnogorsk district. The logopark has a convenient location and is very attractive for both the largest Russian and foreign companies. Among the resident companies it is worth noting: IKEA, Global Logistic Projects, Eldorado, etc.

The development company PNK Group not only made a mark in Chekhov, but also brought new warehouses to the market in the PNK-Vnukovo project. In 2013, the company put into operation three buildings (3, 8 and 9) with a total area of ​​101,000 m2.

In the second half of 2013, the development company Raven Russia increased its activity in the market by continuing to introduce queues in current warehouse projects. Thus, the third stage of the Klimovsk logistics park (55 thousand sq. m.) and the second stage of the Noginsk logistics park (37.1 thousand sq. m.) entered the market.

Figure 2. The most significant production and storage facilities put into operation in 2013 (according to Praedium)

In the geographical structure of commissioning, there is a tendency to develop territories more remote from the MKAD. Traditionally, complexes located 20-30 km from the Moscow Ring Road are in high demand, while now the supply of high-quality facilities located at a distance of up to 50 km from the Moscow Ring Road is being actively formed, which are also in demand, as evidenced by the active use of the "build-to-suit" scheme in the implementation project data.

The market for the sale of land and property complexes for industrial and warehouse purposes, both in the zone up to 30 km and in the zone up to 50 km, is mainly represented by low-class objects, suitable mainly for redevelopment.

Among the complexes commissioned directly within the city of Moscow, experts single out only one object - the Magistralny terminal, which is a warehouse for individual storage. The internal space is organized according to the principle of the constructor, which allows us to offer the tenant an area from 1 to 50 square meters. m in one plane. Prices start from 950 rubles. per sq. m per month and depend on the size of the selected box and the lease term. Advantageous location between two major highways: Khoroshevskoye and Zvenigorodskoye highways, as well as a high level of service ensured a stable demand for self storage services immediately after the start of sales of space in the new terminal.

Demand in the market of industrial and warehouse real estate in Moscow and the Moscow region

An extremely high level of demand remains on the industrial and warehouse real estate market in Moscow and the Moscow Region - even the record commissioning of new premises has practically no effect on the average level of vacant premises, which, according to various estimates, amounted to 1-2%. This circumstance is explained by the following factors:

• Developers, in an effort to minimize the risks associated with the market exposure of the object, are increasingly implementing projects according to the “built-to-suit” scheme, as a result of which a significant proportion of space never goes to the open market (according to various sources - from 35% to 60% in 2013).
• The construction of warehouses for a specific client is a service oriented to large buyers (or tenants), which, together with a low level of vacant space, forms an unsatisfied demand of small buyers (or tenants).
• In the process of construction of objects oriented to the open market, preliminary lease / sale agreements are concluded, which also reduces the actual volume of space entering the open market by the time of commissioning.
• Postponement of commissioning dates for a number of facilities.

Warehouse buyers and tenants choose a "build-to-suit" scheme of interaction with the developer not only because of the limited supply, but also often because of the highly specialized requirements for the acquired space. Compliance with these requirements in the early stages of the project allows you to save on the operation and possible adaptation of a typical warehouse to the specific requirements of a particular client.

The level of demand (the total volume of sales and lease transactions) in 2013, experts estimate at 1.3 million square meters. m, which is slightly higher than in 2013. The demand peaked in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2013.

The most active tenants and buyers of industrial and warehouse real estate in 2013 were large trading companies, distributors and manufacturing enterprises.

Figure 3. Distribution of transactions in the industrial and warehouse real estate market according to the business profile of tenants and buyers (according to the Knight Frank company)

According to Jones Lang LaSalle, the average transaction size increased in 2013 - on average in 2013 it amounted to about 18 thousand square meters. m (13 thousand sq. m in 2012 and 11 thousand sq. m in 2011). Experts call the lease of 72,000 sq. m. by IKEA the biggest deal of the year. m in "Logopark Sever".

Table 1. The largest transactions in the industrial and warehouse real estate market of the Moscow region (according to the company "Jones Lang LaSalle")

Commercial conditions in the market of industrial and warehouse real estate in Moscow and the Moscow region

From the point of view of commercial conditions, the market for industrial and warehouse real estate can be characterized as stable - there were no significant changes in rates during 2013, the current high level of rates is primarily due to the lack of quality supply.

During 2013, the level of rental rates for high-quality industrial and warehouse complexes in the Moscow region was on average in the range of 115-140 USD/sq. m/year (triple net).

The range and average cost of supply of industrial and warehouse complexes, depending on the conditional location area, were (including objects for redevelopment):

• Within the city limits of Moscow: 16,130 - 158,333 rubles/sq. m, the average value is 58,915 rubles / sq. m.
• In the area up to 20-30 km from the Moscow Ring Road (Podolsk, Odintsovo, Zelenograd, etc.): 3,349 - 61,508 rubles / sq. m., the average value is 36,862 rubles / sq. m.
• In the zone 30-50 km from the Moscow Ring Road (Elektrostal, Chekhov, Solnechnogorsk, Dmitrov, etc.): 1,916 - 52,174 rubles/sq. m., the average value is 21,725 ​​rubles / sq. m.

Figure 4. Range and average values ​​of the unit cost of supply of industrial and warehouse real estate, depending on the location area of ​​the object, rub./sq.m.

The unit cost of space in the segment of high-quality warehouse real estate in the Moscow region is on average in the range of 900-1,400 USD/sq. m., the capitalization rate is about 11%.

Pricing factors in the industrial and warehouse real estate market

Since the cost of objects located within the city is much higher than the cost of objects located in the region, it is advisable to build the dependence of the unit cost on pricing factors for one of these groups of objects. Further, for building dependencies, objects located in the area were chosen due to the larger number of proposals and, as a result, more visual construction of these dependencies.

Among the pricing factors of industrial and warehouse real estate, the most significant, in terms of the impact on the unit cost of the object, quantitative factors can be distinguished:

First of all, we can single out a factor related to location and transport accessibility, namely - distance to MKAD. This factor has the greatest impact on the price of objects located outside the city, since objects within the city are significantly influenced by many other factors related to location (for example, distance to the metro, distance to major streets, etc.). In addition, the factor distance to the main transport routes.

Among the objects offered for sale in 2013, the range of values ​​of the factor "Distance to the Moscow Ring Road" was 3.6-59 km, the average - 33 km.

The range of values ​​of the factor "Distance to the main transport routes" was 0.2-9 km, the average value was 1.8 km.

Figure 5. Influence of the factor "Distance to the Moscow Ring Road" on the unit cost of the object

Figure 6. Influence of the factor "Distance to the main transport routes" on the unit cost of the object

Total area of ​​improvements- according to a survey of agents specializing in the sale of industrial and warehouse real estate in the Moscow region, when selling objects of a larger area, sellers are ready to accept a certain reduction in payment, which is analogous to a "discount on wholesale", i.e. objects of a larger area, as a rule, cost less in terms of one square meter. The range of values ​​for the “total area of ​​improvements” factor was 110-75,000 sq. m., the average value is 8,939 sq. m.

Figure 7. Influence of the factor "Total area of ​​improvements" on the unit cost of the object

The total area of ​​the land plot. Production and storage facilities with a larger land plot are in greater demand in the market. Since, on the surplus land plot, it is possible to organize parking for vehicles, place an open warehouse for various products, there is the possibility of maneuvering heavy vehicles. The range of the value of the factor "Total area of ​​the site" was 1,300-83,200 sq. m. m., the average value is 22,764 sq. m.

Figure 8. Influence of the factor "Total area of ​​the land plot" on the unit cost of the object

The most significant quality factors include:

Condition / level of interior decoration of production and storage facilities- the good condition of the building or the overhaul carried out in it will save the potential owner from attracting additional investments in the object. Offer prices for production and storage buildings or built-in premises in good condition with a simple level of finish are higher than prices for objects in satisfactory condition.

Table 1. Values ​​of the factor "Condition / level of interior decoration"

Availability and condition of engineering networks also plays a significant role in shaping the value of the production and storage facility. This factor determines the volume of necessary investments for the normal functioning of the facility, while, from the point of view of the implementation of the production and storage function, the availability of electricity and heat supply is paramount.

Table 2. Values ​​of the factor "Presence and condition of engineering networks"

Equipping access roads and their convenience- the most demanded are the sites with several convenient access roads. The convenience of access roads is evaluated according to a point system, depending on the class and level of traffic on the street from which the vehicle enters the territory, as well as the possibility of temporary parking on it.

Table 3. Values ​​of the factor "Equipment with access roads and their convenience"

Depending on the type of production, other pricing factors (presence of a railway line, ceiling height, availability of cranes, etc.) can be taken into account.

Main trends and forecasts in the market of industrial and warehouse real estate in Moscow and the Moscow region

• In 2013, the classification of industrial and warehouse real estate was revised - information on class A + objects was clarified.
• There is still a high level of demand on the market against the backdrop of a shortage of quality supply, the vacancy rate in 2013 was 1-2%.
• The main commissioning of new facilities falls on popular directions: south, southeast, southwest. At the same time, almost all objects belong to class "A".
• The volume of transactions in the segment of industrial and warehouse real estate amounted to about 1.3 million square meters. m.
• A relatively new trend is the implementation of projects remote from the Moscow Ring Road at a distance of 30-50 km.
• The implementation of projects according to the "built-to-suit" scheme is becoming more and more popular - according to various estimates, in 2013, from 35% to 60% of the areas were implemented in this way.
• Given the postponement of the date of commissioning of a number of projects, in 2014 the volume of commissioning in 2013 may be maintained. At the same time, the level of vacant premises is expected to remain at the level of 2-4%.
• The growth of rental rates and the cost of selling objects is not expected - the main constraining factor is the unfavorable macroeconomic forecast for 2014 (low growth of GDP and other socio-economic indicators is predicted).
• Among the largest projects announced for commissioning in 2014, market experts distinguish: the South Gate industrial park and the Radumlya logistics park, with a total area of ​​200 and 155 thousand square meters. m., respectively.

Conclusions: close to record volumes of commissioned space in the industrial and warehouse real estate market in Moscow and the Moscow region did not have a significant impact on demand, which continues to be at a high level. In the absence of major fluctuations in commercial conditions against the backdrop of a high level of demand, it can be concluded that the market is stabilizing. The main factors that hold back the market from further active development are macroeconomic - the instability of the general economic situation increases the risks of developers, forcing the latter to work more actively according to the "build-to-suit" scheme.

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Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Segment Warehouses Retail properties Offices

header	the date	segment
	27.03.2019	Offices
	10.10.2018	Offices
	08.07.2018	Offices
	12.04.2018	Offices
	15.01.2018	Offices
	07.11.2017	Offices
	01.08.2017	Offices
	25.04.2017	Offices
	15.02.2017	Offices
	24.11.2016	Offices
	16.09.2016	Offices
	18.05.2016	Offices
	19.02.2016	Offices
	02.11.2015	Offices
	03.08.2015	Offices
	27.04.2015	Offices
	30.01.2015	Retail property
	30.01.2015	Offices

The need to analyze the commercial real estate market at the stage of making an investment decision is beyond doubt. A thorough study of such factors as the location of the object, the level of real estate prices in selected areas, the features of taxation and the intricacies of legislation will determine the feasibility and economic benefits of financial investments in real estate. In addition, a well-conducted analysis of the commercial real estate market helps to identify the potential of the selected object, revealing which, you can benefit from your investments in the optimal time frame.

With many years of experience in the field, continuous improvement of skills and deepening of the acquired knowledge, Praedium's analytics and research department will help you make the right investment choice. An important advantage of Praedium analytics is the high level of professionalism of our consultants and experts. We conduct regular analysis of the commercial real estate market, monitor all events in the investment market and study the main macroeconomic trends. The main confirmation of Praedium's successful development strategy is the numerous positive customer reviews of completed analytics projects and interest in reviews of the commercial real estate market.

The Analytics and Research Department regularly releases the following materials:

A quarterly review of the commercial real estate market (analysis), which collects and visually presents information on demand, supply, price and rental rates, as well as data on current trends and recent events in various segments of commercial real estate, collected over the period.

A monthly digest of the main events, which presents the most relevant and notable reviews of the commercial real estate market. It allows our readers to always stay up to date with the most important market events.

Praedium's analytics department also conducts a number of specialized studies at the request of clients. These include:

Analysis of the competitive environment of the real estate object. In the course of this study, the alleged competitors of the client's object are studied in detail, a comparative analysis of the advantages and weaknesses is carried out. The information obtained allows us to develop proposals for the most profitable commercial use of the facility and determine options for development concepts that maximize the potential of the facility.

Calculation of the market rental rate or sale price. This study allows, after conducting a review of commercial real estate, to determine the rate at which the property can be leased under typical market conditions and the most likely market value of the property in the event of its sale. This information will allow predicting the profitability of investments for the client with a high degree of accuracy.

RRG conducted a study of the commercial real estate market in the capital region in the third quarter of 2017. Information for the study was obtained from more than 30 specialized and thematic sources on the Moscow commercial real estate market. Among the sources are electronic databases of real estate, print and electronic media, real estate agencies and consulting companies.

As objects for the study of the market for the sale of commercial real estate, office, production and warehouse premises (PSP) and free commercial premises (PSN) worth 36 million rubles or more, as well as retail premises worth 26 million rubles or more, or premises with a total area of ​​at least 100 sq. m.

As objects for the study of the commercial real estate rental market, objects offered in open sources were selected - retail, office, production and warehouse premises (PSP) with a total area of ​​at least 50 sq. m. m.

The volume of offers of real estate objects in both segments - sale and lease - decreased.

Sale

Market as a whole

Supply volume

In 3 sq. 2017, the volume of supply decreased by 1% in terms of quantity and by 4% in terms of total area. For the year, compared to the 3rd quarter. 2016, supply decreased by 5% in quantity and decreased by 28% in total area.

A total of 2,164 properties with a total area of ​​2,960,000 sq.m. were put up for sale in the 3rd quarter.

Price indicators

The weighted average price in 3 sq. m. 2017 decreased by 1% and amounted to 176,936 rubles/sq.m. Taking into account the fact that the dollar exchange rate increased by 3% over the quarter, and decreased by 9% over the year, the price in dollar terms increased by 2% over the quarter, and decreased by 19% over the year and amounted to $2,998/sq.m. The total value of commercial real estate decreased by 5% over the quarter, and by 35% over the year, and amounted to 523 billion rubles.

The decrease in prices both in rubles and in dollars over the year indicates a decrease in demand. At the same time, the decline in the supply of vacant space, their withdrawal from the market gives hope that a new equilibrium point in the market will soon be found.

All segments	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m
meaning	2 164	523 699	2 960	1,37	176 936
to Q2 2017	− 1%	− 5%	− 4%	− 3%	− 1%
to III quarter. 2016	− 5%	− 35%	− 28%	− 24%	− 10%

Supply volume

The volume of supply in terms of total area in the 3rd quarter compared to the 2nd quarter for retail real estate decreased by 14%, for office real estate - by 5%, for production and warehouse premises - by 5%, and for free-use premises - increased by 14%.

The volume of supply in terms of total area per year compared to 3 sq. 2016, for retail real estate decreased by 29%, for office - by 35%, for industrial and warehouse - increased by 17%, and for free-use premises decreased by 35%.

There have been changes in the structure of segments by area. The share of office objects was 59%. Next come premises for free use (21%), production and storage (13%) and retail premises (7%).

Price indicators

For the 3rd quarter of 2017, the price for retail real estate increased by 2% to 245,510 rubles/sq.m., for office real estate decreased by 4% and amounted to 202,521 rubles/sq.m. 63,439 rubles/sq.m., and for free-use premises - by 5% to 210,068 rubles/sq.m.

Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2016, the weighted average price decreased by 9% for retail real estate, by 4% for office real estate, by 17% for industrial and warehouse real estate and increased by 1% for free-use premises.

The only segment where prices decreased in Q3 2017 was office real estate, however, the price increase in other segments was insignificant, and over the year prices decreased in all segments except for production and warehouse premises.

Trading	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Weighted average price, rub./sq.m.
meaning	348	45 738	186	0,54	245 510
to Q2 2017	− 15%	− 12%	− 14%	+ 1%	+ 2%
to III quarter. 2016	− 7%	− 35%	− 29%	− 23%	− 9%

Office	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Weighted average price, rub./sq.m.
meaning	1 341	347 182	1 714	1,28	202 521
to Q2 2017	+ 4%	− 9%	− 5%	− 9%	− 4%
to III quarter. 2016	− 3%	− 38%	− 35%	− 33%	− 4%

PSP	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Weighted average price, rub./sq.m.
Meaning	160	39 688	626	3,91	63 439
to Q2 2017	− 18%	− 2%	− 5%	+ 16%	+ 4%
to III quarter. 2016	− 15%	− 3%	+ 17%	+ 38%	− 17%

PSN	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Weighted average price, rub./sq.m.
meaning	315	91 091	434	1,38	210 068
to Q2 2017	+ 11%	+ 20%	+ 14%	+ 2%	+ 5%
to III quarter. 2016	− 4%	− 35%	− 35%	− 32%	+ 1%

Retail property

Supply volume

In the 3rd quarter, 348 retail objects with a total area of ​​186 thousand square meters were exhibited, of which 32 objects were inside the Garden Ring and 316 objects outside it.

Over the quarter, the volume of supply of retail facilities in the center decreased by 9% in terms of number, and remained unchanged in terms of total area. The volume of supply of retail facilities outside the center decreased by 16% in terms of quantity and by 15% in terms of total area.

Price indicators

The weighted average price for retail facilities in the center for the 3rd quarter of 2017 decreased by 16% and amounted to 824,912 rubles/sq.m. (2,586 sq.m., 2,200,000 rubles/sq.m.), as well as the entry into the market of cheap properties on Raushskaya nab. (398 sq.m, 282,518 rubles/sq.m), Tolmachevsky per. (680 sq.m., 262,500 rubles/sq.m.), Kazarmenny per. (720 sq.m, 305,556 rubles/sq.m).

The weighted average price for retail premises outside the center increased by 4% to RUB 219,283/sq.m. The price increase was associated with the entry into the market in the 3rd quarter of an expensive retail facility on Ryazansky Prospekt (9,747 sq.m., 359,064 rubles per sq.m.) .

Despite the fact that prices for premises in the center decreased over the quarter, and outside, on the contrary, increased, the situation is reversed over the year, so in the medium term we can say that the demand for premises in the center is higher, but until recently such premises were somewhat overrated.

Trading	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Weighted average price, rub./sq.m.
meaning	348	45 738	186	0,54	245 510
to Q2 2017	− 15%	− 12%	− 14%	+ 1%	+ 2%
to III quarter. 2016	− 7%	− 35%	− 29%	− 23%	− 9%

Trading inside the UK	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Weighted average price, rub./sq.m.
meaning	32	6 655	8	0,25	824 912
to Q2 2017	− 9%	− 16%	0%	+ 9%	− 16%
to III quarter. 2016	− 22%	− 41%	− 48%	− 33%	+ 14%

Trading outside the UK	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Weighted average price, rub./sq.m.
meaning	316	39 083	178	0,56	219 283
to Q2 2017	− 16%	− 12%	− 15%	+ 1%	+ 4%
to III quarter. 2016	− 5%	− 34%	− 27%	− 24%	− 9%

street retail

Supply volume

In the 3rd quarter of 2017, 107 street-retail objects with a total area of ​​29,000 sq.m. were put up for sale, of which 10 objects are inside the Garden Ring and 97 objects outside it.

The volume of supply for retail facilities in the center decreased by 9% in terms of quantity, and by 10% in terms of total area. The volume of supply for retail facilities outside the center decreased by 14% in terms of quantity, and by 20% in terms of total area.

Price indicators

The weighted average price for street-retail properties in the center increased by 8% to RUB 960,183/sq.m., while the price for old properties decreased by 10%. The increase in prices was due to the entry into the market of an expensive object on M. Kozikhinsky per. (100 sq.m, 1,459,550 rubles/sq.m).

Outside the center, the weighted average price increased by 2% and amounted to 275,718 rubles/sq.m., which was due to a 5% increase in prices for objects that have been on display for a long time.

street retail	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand m2	Average area, thousand m2
meaning	107	9 934	29	0,27	343 396
to Q2 2017	− 14%	− 15%	− 19%	− 6%	+ 5%
to III quarter. 2016	+ 1%	− 22%	− 2%	− 3%	− 21%

Street-retail inside the UK	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand m2	Average area, thousand m2	Weighted average price, RUB/m2
meaning	10	2 747	3	0,29	960 183
to Q2 2017	− 9%	− 3%	− 10%	− 1%	+ 8%
to III quarter. 2016	− 41%	− 42%	− 38%	+ 6%	− 7%

Street-retail outside the UK	Quantity	Total cost, million rubles	Total area, thousand m2	Average area, thousand m2	Weighted average price, RUB/m2
meaning	97	7 188	26	0,27	275 718
to Q2 2017	− 14%	− 18%	− 20%	− 6%	+ 2%
to III quarter. 2016	+ 9%	− 10%	+ 5%	− 4%	− 15%

Rent

Market as a whole

Supply volume

The volume of supply in the rental market in 3 sq. m. 2017 decreased by 7% in number and by 10% in total area. In general, for 4 quarters, the volume of supply increased by 19% in terms of quantity, and by 3% in terms of total area.

In total, 4,452 objects with a total area of ​​2,260 thousand sq.m. were exhibited in the 3rd quarter.

Price indicators

The average rate both for the quarter and for the last 4 quarters decreased by 3% and amounted to 17,969 rubles/sq.m/year. Taking into account the fact that the dollar exchange rate increased by 3% in the third quarter, the price in dollar terms did not change for the quarter and amounted to $304/sq.m/year. The annual rent for the quarter decreased by 12% and amounted to 32.4 billion rubles.

The decrease in the average rental rate in both dollars and rubles for the year indicates that negative factors still prevail in the real estate market.

All segments	Quantity	Total gap, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m
meaning	4 452	32 416	2 260	0,51	17 969
to Q2 2017	− 7%	− 13%	− 10%	− 3%	− 3%
to III quarter. 2016	+ 19%	− 0%	+ 3%	− 13%	− 3%

Segment Benchmarking

Supply volume

The volume of supply in terms of total area for the 3rd quarter of 2017 in relation to the second decreased by 19% for retail, 11% for office and 4% for industrial and warehouse real estate.

The volume of supply for the total area of ​​retail real estate decreased by 5% over the year, for office real estate - by 4%, and for industrial and warehouse real estate - increased by 17%.

Office space remains the leader in supply in terms of total area, with a share of 50%. Next come production and storage (38%) and retail premises (12%).

Price indicators

The average rental rate for the 3rd quarter of 2017 for retail real estate decreased by 2% and amounted to 30,808 rubles/sq.m./year, for office real estate - also decreased by 2% to 17,327 rubles/sq.m./year, and for the production and warehouse - increased by 2% and amounted to 6,656 rubles per sq.m./year.

Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2016, the change in the rental rate was -3% for retail, +1% for office, and for industrial and warehouse real estate, the rate did not change.

The change in rates both for the quarter and for the year continues to be insignificant, which is typical for the stage of market stagnation.

Trading	Quantity	Total gap, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Average rate, rub./sq.m./year
meaning	922	6 660	254	0,28	30 808
to Q2 2017	− 10%	− 17%	− 19%	− 10%	− 2%
to III quarter. 2016	+ 11%	− 3%	− 5%	− 14%	− 3%

Office	Quantity	Total gap, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Average rate, rub./sq.m./year
meaning	2 633	19 984	1 090	0,41	17 327
to Q2 2017	− 7%	− 14%	− 11%	− 4%	− 2%
to III quarter. 2016	+ 18%	− 3%	− 4%	− 19%	+ 1%

PSP	Quantity	Total gap, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Average rate, rub./sq.m./year
Meaning	897	5 772	916	1,02	6 656
to Q2 2017	− 2%	− 3%	− 4%	− 3%	+ 2%
to III quarter. 2016	+ 31%	+ 15%	+ 17%	− 11%	0%

Retail property

Supply volume

The volume of supply of retail real estate in the 3rd quarter decreased by 10% in terms of quantity, and decreased by 19% in terms of total area. The volume of supply for the year increased by 11% in terms of quantity, and decreased by 5% in terms of the total area.

In total, 922 objects with an area of ​​254 thousand square meters were exhibited in the 3rd quarter, of which 51 objects were in the center and 871 premises were outside.

The volume of supply for the total area in the 3rd quarter decreased by 18% in the center and by 19% outside it.

Price indicators

The average rental rate for retail facilities within the Garden Ring in 3 sq. m. 2017 decreased by 1% and amounted to 58,889 rubles/sq.m/year.

The average rental rate for retail properties outside the Garden Ring did not change and amounted to 29,164 rubles/sq.m./year.

The insignificance of changes in rates for retail facilities indicates stagnation in the market in the face of a decrease in supply.

254 0,28 30 808 to Q2 2017 − 10% − 17% − 19% − 10% − 2% to III quarter. 2016 + 11% − 3% − 5% − 14% − 3%

Trading inside the UK	Quantity	Total gap, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Average rate, rub./sq.m./year
meaning	51	658	13	0,26	58 889
to Q2 2017	− 30%	− 24%	− 18%	+ 17%	− 1%
to III quarter. 2016	− 39%	− 29%	− 26%	+ 22%	− 3%

Trading outside the UK	Quantity	Total gap, million rubles	Total area, thousand sq.m	Average area, thousand sq.m	Average rate, rub./sq.m./year
meaning	871	6 001	241	0,28	29 164
to Q2 2017	− 9%	− 17%	− 19%	− 11%	0%
to III quarter. 2016	+ 16%	+ 1%	− 3%	− 17%	+ 2%

street retail

Supply volume

The volume of supply of street-retail objects in the 3rd quarter of 2017 decreased by 10% in terms of quantity and by 19% in terms of total area. Over the year, the volume of supply increased by 13% in terms of quantity, and by 4% in terms of total area. In total, 353 objects with an area of ​​76 thousand square meters were exhibited in the 3rd quarter, of which 17 objects were offered in the center and 336 objects outside it.

Total area, thousand m2 Average area, thousand m2 Average rate, rub./sq.m./year meaning 353 2 351 76 0,22 34 976 to Q2 2017 − 10% − 20% − 19% − 10% − 5% to III quarter. 2016 + 13% + 1% + 4% − 8% − 9%

Street-retail inside the UK	Quantity	Total gap, million rubles	Total area, thousand m2	Average area, thousand m2	Average rate, rub./sq.m./year
meaning	17	255	5	0,29	67 263
to Q2 2017	− 32%	− 28%	− 6%	+ 38%	− 13%
to III quarter. 2016	− 51%	− 38%	− 29%	+ 47%	− 3%

Street-retail outside the UK	Quantity	Total gap, million rubles	Total area, thousand m2	Average area, thousand m2	Average rate, rub./sq.m./year
meaning	336	2 097	71	0,21	33 343
to Q2 2017	− 9%	− 19%	− 20%	− 12%	− 2%
to III quarter. 2016	+ 21%	+ 9%	+ 8%	− 11%	− 3%

Specialists of the international consulting company Knight Frank have compiled a rating of development companies in the retail real estate segment by portfolio size at the moment. In total, the list includes 15 largest companies with a portfolio of at least 190 thousand square meters. m of retail space.

09.04.2019

Not quantity, but quality

Analysis of the shopping center market in St. Petersburg based on the results of the 1st quarter of 2019: over the past quarter, the minimum number of new tenants opened in the shopping center in four years. At the same time, they appeared as part of a rotation to improve the pool of operators, which ultimately leads to an increase in rental rates on the market.

13.03.2019

Provision of Russians with outlets is 7 times lower than in Europe

Analysts of the international consulting company Knight Frank noted that the provision of Russians with outlet format stores is at the lowest level in Europe - 1.1 sq. m /1000 people against 9.2 sq. m/1000 people on average in European countries and 90 sq. m/1000 people in the USA. There are more than 200 outlets in America, about 150 in Europe, and only 6 in Russia.

12.02.2019

Russians "do not finish drinking" coffee for 1 trillion rubles

According to the international consulting company Knight Frank, the Russian market is currently undergoing the third wave of coffee shop openings. Unlike the first two, since 2013, small author's chains of coffee houses and coffee bars have been actively developing against the backdrop of changes in consumer behavior. However, the coffee shop market is far from saturated. Now there are about 5,000 coffee shops in million-plus cities, while the market size is 130 billion rubles, and the potential, taking into account consumer opportunities, is 1 trillion rubles, which is 7.6 more than the current market saturation. The potential of the Moscow market is more than 120 billion rubles, which is 4 times higher than the current value.

01.02.2019

What awaits the commercial real estate market in 2019

Cushman & Wakefield experts told what awaits the commercial real estate market in 2019. The main challenges for the Russian economy in the coming years will be growing inequality and disparity. The gap between leaders and outsiders will grow in all market segments.

31.01.2019

The volume of new construction of retail real estate in 2019 will grow by 45%

In the retail real estate market in 2019, an increase in construction activity is expected. According to a report by Marketbeat Cushman & Wakefield, new construction in 2019 will amount to 700 thousand square meters. m, which is 45% more than in 2018.

28.01.2019

In 2018, a record number of foreign brands left the Russian market, and the number of new brands is the lowest in the last 5 years

Analysts of the international consulting company Knight Frank summed up the results of 2018 in the Moscow retail real estate market and found out that in 2018 135.1 thousand sq. m. m, which is the lowest figure in the past 10 years. At the same time, the vacancy decreased by 1.5% p.p. up to 7%.

The anti-records in the retail segment did not end there - in 2018, the lowest indicator for the entry of new brands was recorded (22 operators against 37 in 2017) against the backdrop of the highest indicator for the closure of retailers (12 operators left the market). In 2018, 1.5 times more retailers left than in 2017, when 8 brands announced their exit, and this is the highest number of closures since 2012.

25.01.2019

Results of the retail real estate market in 2018 in St. Petersburg

At the end of 2018, for the first time since 2014, there was a significant increase in the segment of high-quality retail space. The volume of commissioning amounted to 128,200 sq.m., which is 3% of the total market volume.

24.01.2019

How did the retail market develop in 2018

2018 was characterized by a relative "warming" in the development of retail and catering. This trend was typical not only for million-plus cities, but also for other regions of Russia. This is evidenced by the results of an industry study conducted by RealJet.

26.11.2018

International brands 2018. Degree of development in Russia

For the second year in a row, international brands of the Economy price category have not entered the Russian market. More than half of the new brands belong to the middle price segment. From the second quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, 33 new brands entered the Russian market, and 21 brands left the market. Such data are provided in a study of the company"Shop Store".

20.11.2018

Moscow shopping malls are shrinking: by 2020, 85% of projects are planned in the format of small shopping centers

Analysts from the international company Knight Frank found out that almost all new shopping centers that entered the market since the beginning of this year and are scheduled to open before the end of 2018 in Moscow belong to the format of small shopping centers (GLA up to 20,000 sq. m.). By the end of 2020, it is planned to bring about 57 new shopping centers to the capital market, of which about 85% of the objects (49 projects) correspond to the regional scale. This largely indicates the transition of the market from the mega-mall format to district-scale shopping centers.

13.11.2018

CBRE analyzed the Russian outlet market

Until the end of 2019, the largest number of outlet openings in the history of Russia is expected: the outlet market will grow by 95,700 sq. m.

16.10.2018

After the World Cup, street retail in St. Petersburg began to increase the share of vacant premises

According to JLL, by the end of the 3rd quarter, the share of vacant premises on the main shopping streets of St. Petersburg increased from 7.5% to 7.8%. The most significant increase in vacancy is at the level of 1-2 p.p. - occurred on lines 6-7 of V.O., Sadovaya street and Moskovsky prospect. At the same time, the indicator on the main part of Nevsky Prospect for July-September changed slightly and amounted to about 4%.

05.10.2018

The volume of commissioning of shopping centers in Moscow in 2018 may be the lowest in six years

According to JLL, in the first three quarters of 2018, only 98,000 sq. m of retail space, which is 13% less than in the same period last year. It should be noted that not a single shopping center was opened in Moscow in the 3rd quarter.

04.10.2018

The maximum volume of new tenants in the shopping center of St. Petersburg was recorded in the 3rd quarter of 2018

According to JLL, the volume of stores opened or announced for the imminent opening in the shopping centers of St. Petersburg in the 3rd quarter of 2018 exceeded 83 thousand square meters. m. This is the highest quarterly value in the quality retail real estate market over the past 10 years.

27.09.2018

Since the beginning of 2018, 1.5 times fewer new brands have come to Russia

Since the beginning of this year, 17 new international brands have entered the Russian market, which is almost 1.5 times less compared to the same period in 2017 (28 brands), according to a study by the international consulting company Knight Frank.

In January 2019, 1,972 commercial real estate objects with a total area of ​​1,220,000 sq. m. were offered for rent. m. The volume of supply for the month decreased by 34% in terms of quantity, and by 26% in terms of total area. The average rental rate for the month decreased by 2% and...

19.02.2019

Overview of the market for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow. January 2019

In January, 658 objects with a total area of ​​873 thousand square meters were offered for sale. m and a total cost of 153 billion rubles, which is lower than in December by 58% in terms of quantity and by 54% in terms of total area. The weighted average price for the month in rubles did not change and amounted to...

04.02.2019

Overview of the market for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow. December 2018

In December, 1,578 objects with a total area of ​​1,925 thousand square meters were offered for sale. m and a total cost of 335 billion rubles, which is 58% higher than in November, both in terms of quantity and total area. The weighted average price for the month in rubles increased by 9% and...

04.02.2019

Overview of the commercial real estate rental market in Moscow. December 2018

In December 2018, 2,968 commercial real estate objects with a total area of ​​1,641 thousand sq. m. were offered for rent. m. The volume of supply for the month increased by 4% in terms of quantity, and by 5% in terms of total area. The average rental rate for the month has not changed and the composition ...

04.02.2019

Moscow commercial real estate market. Results of 2018

Negative factors continue to have a significant impact on the commercial real estate market, resulting in little growth. Our forecast a year ago that, in the absence of significant prerequisites for growth in the macroeconomic...

19.12.2018

Overview of the market for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow. November 2018

In November, 997 objects with a total area of ​​1,219 thousand square meters were offered for sale. m and a total cost of 194 billion rubles, which is lower than in October by 16% in terms of quantity and by 24% in terms of total area. The weighted average price for the month in rubles increased by 11% and amounted to...

19.12.2018

Overview of the commercial real estate rental market in Moscow. November 2018

In November 2018, 2,671 commercial real estate objects with a total area of ​​1,377 thousand sq. m. were offered for rent. m. The volume of supply for the month decreased by 6% in terms of quantity, and by 12% in terms of total area. The average rental rate for the month increased by 6% and amounted to...

27.11.2018

Overview of the market for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow. October 2018

In October, 1,183 properties with a total area of ​​1,609,000 sq. m. were offered for sale. m and a total cost of 231 billion rubles, which is 11% higher than in September both in terms of quantity and total area. The weighted average price for the month in rubles decreased by 5% and...

27.11.2018

Overview of the commercial real estate rental market in Moscow.October 2018

In October 2018, 2,846 commercial real estate objects with a total area of ​​1,559 thousand square meters were offered for rent. m. The volume of supply for the month increased by 25% in terms of quantity, and by 16% in terms of total area. The average rental rate for the month increased by 5% and was...

12.11.2018

Results of the III quarter of 2018 in the commercial real estate market of Moscow

Despite the rise in prices for certain segments of commercial real estate, the market as a whole continues to stagnate. The fact that, in contrast to the rental market, in the sales market, prices for individual segments move in different directions, may indicate that ...